Hollenbeck leads Sheriff race among Fort Smith voters

Editor’s note: This is the first of three stories based on a recent The City Wire Election 2010 survey of 600 likely Fort Smith voters. Poll results from the Fort Smith mayoral race and two city director elections (Position 5 and 6) will be released Friday. Results from respondents about the convention center and the city form of government will be released Monday.

Bill Hollenbeck receives a majority of support from Fort Smith likely voters in his bid for Sebastian County Sheriff, but the lead is likely to be tested by supporters of his opponent who live outside the city limits.

In the first ever professional survey of the race for Sheriff, The City Wire Election 2010 Poll shows Hollenbeck (D) with a 48% to 41.5% lead over Republican Tommy Young among Fort Smith voters. The survey of 600 likely voters in Fort Smith also showed that 10.5% remain undecided.

The race opened up when Sheriff Frank Atkinson, 63, announced March 8 he would not seek a seventh, two-year term.

Young, now serving as chief deputy of the Sebastian County Sheriff’s Department, was not surprised that Hollenbeck has a lead among Fort Smith voters. He is confident the lead will not hold up when all Sebastian County votes are tallied on Nov. 2.

“I expect him to have somewhat of a lead on me there in Fort Smith,” said Young, who lives in Greenwood. “I think where I will make up the difference is in the south part of the county.”

Roby Brock, owner of Talk Business Research, also suggested Hollenbeck’s lead does not represent a sure win. Brock, a content partner with The City Wire, and Hendrix College conducted the survey.

“In the county sheriff’s race, Democrat Bill Hollenbeck has a 6.5% advantage at this juncture with a 48-41.5% lead over Republican Tommy Young. I would not consider that a comfortable lead with the history of competitive races in Sebastian County, the Republican network in the region and considering the margin of error in this survey,” Brock noted in his analysis of the numbers.

Hollenbeck agrees with Brock and Young.

“I’m pleased, of course, that the survey shows I’m ahead. I think it’s an indicator that the people are ready for a more modern and professional department,” Hollenbeck said. “But I’m planning to stick my campaign plan and work up until the 11th hour. This isn’t over until they (voters) say it is over.”

Hollenbeck and Young also agree that party affiliation is not as important in county races as it is in state and federal races.

An early September 2010 survey by Talk Business Research/Hendrix College quantified the voter mood by showing that most Arkansas voters would, all things being equal, vote for a Republican over a Democrat.

“This is not about who has a D or an R with the name. This election is about public safety,” said Hollenbeck, referring to the number of recent prisoner escape from the Sebastian County Jail.

Young said Sebastian County voters almost always decide local races by voting for people rather than party.

“I think people go for the person more so than the party here in the county. That (party affiliation) may matter for the few voters who don’t us, but I don’t see it being a big difference,” Young said.

POLL BACKGROUND
This poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Oct. 19, among 600 registered voters in the Fort Smith city limits who indicated they were likely to vote in the November elections. The random sample of potential respondents came from a pool of 7,538 registered voters residing in the Fort Smith city limits.

The demographic breakdown for The City Wire Election 2010 Poll was:
• Age
4%: Under the age of 30
11%: Between the ages of 30 and 44
40.5%: Between the Ages of 45 and 64
44.5%: 65 or older

• Ethnicity
3%: African-American
4%: Asian-American
87%: Caucasian or White
2%: Latino
4%: Other

• Gender
54%: Male
46%: Female