Arkansas Election Line: Most constitutional officer races move to ‘toss up’

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Matt Campbell (Blue Hog Report) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

The Arkansas Election Line is changing its rating on three of the four contested Arkansas constitutional officer races on the statewide ballot this fall.

The initial ratings were:
• Governor – Safe Mike Beebe (D)
• Lt. Governor – Leans Shane Broadway (D)
• Secretary of State – Leans Pat O’Brien (D)
• Land Commissioner – Leans L.J. Bryant (D)



“With the revelation of recent polls and in the context of a changing political dynamic this year that is favoring Republicans generically, the AEL makes several changes to these match-ups and one notable static pick,” noted this report at TalkBusiness.net, a content parter with The City Wire.



The Arkansas Election Line leaves the gubernatorial race as "Safe Beebe.”

Gov. Mike Beebe has amassed a war chest of more than $2.5 million and that’s after he’s made major media purchases that will carry him through election day on Nov. 2. As the race appeared more competitive, Beebe hunkered down, stuck to his jobs message, and raised money.  Keet’s small media run during that stretch appears to have done him little good as a recent Mason-Dixon poll shows him down by 21 points.

Keet still has hope that voter anger over some state issues — such as the vehicle controversy, a collapse of the economy, or a break-down in state government — will stick to Beebe in a way that surprises the incumbent Governor.  Those developments appear unlikely at this juncture and Beebe clearly has enough firepower in his bank account to combat anything that might arise.

Absent an unforeseen circumstance, this race remains solidly in Beebe’s favor.

However, the Arkansas Election Line moves the Lt. Governor, Secretary of State and Commissioner of State Lands races from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss Up."

In a normal election year, winning the Democratic primary for a constitutional office was tantamount to victory.  But this isn’t a normal election year. Thanks to a voting electorate with dropping confidence in the national Democratic brand, the lesser-known Democrats on the ballot are suffering from a generic Republican bounce. For the Republican candidates in these races — Mark Darr (Lt. Gov.), Mark Martin (Secretary of State) and John Thurston (Land Commissioner) — they are suddenly competitive.

The "Toss Up" ranking is the result of numerous conversations with campaign insiders, a money advantage for Democrats, and polling data that is sending very mixed signals in these 3 races.