Republican ahead in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District

Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District is leaning toward Republican candidate Tim Griffin according to a new Talk Business Poll conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College.

The poll shows shows Griffin with a 17-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Joyce Elliott. In a survey conducted Aug. 17, Griffin leads Elliott 52-35% among likely voters. Independent candidate Lance Levi polled at 3%, while Green Party nominee Lewis Kennedy received 1% of support from those surveyed. Undecided voters accounted for 9%.

"This poll is merely intended to be a baseline as we head into the fall," said Talk Business editor Roby Brock. "As the dynamics of this race alter with paid media from the candidates and outside groups, I expect this race to make a lot of headlines and we’ll certainly track it closely through future polling."



Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the poll. He offered the following observations from the results:

The horserace numbers (52-35% Griffin with 1-3-9% for Kennedy, Levi, and Undecided respectively) indicate, first, the national winds blowing against the Democrats that have intensified this summer. They also show a shift against Democrats in Arkansas that has been underway since 2008, Barth noted.



"The numbers in this poll are not that different from 54-44% McCain-Obama margin in 2008 in the Second District," Barth said.

Over 90% of Republicans are already committed to Griffin despite facing an aggressive primary opponent. On the other hand, Elliott still needs to bring some Democrats home with nearly 30% saying that they are leaning toward Griffin, the third party candidates or undecided.



“Most damaging for Elliott, and reflecting trends seen elsewhere, independents are skewing heavily towards the Republican at this point in the game. Independents at this point favor Griffin 67% to 20%,” Barth said.

Geography has to be the most encouraging piece of news in the poll for the Griffin campaign. The perception has long been that Elliott will run up a large margin in Pulaski County, but this poll indicates Griffin has a lead across the eight counties including Pulaski. While Elliott is doing better in Pulaski County than outside of it, Griffin even shows a lead there (he’s just at 50%).

“Based on President Obama’s victory in Pulaski County in 2008 by over 18,000 votes, it’s clear that Elliott can close the gap in the race by bringing home the Democratic base county.  But, that will involve a lot of work at a time her campaign also must focus on holding down the margins in the seven outlying counties,” Barth noted.



POLL BACKGROUND

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Tuesday, August 17, 2010 among 716 registered Arkansas voters in Congressional District 2 who indicated they were "likely" to vote in the November 2, 2010 general election. 76% of those surveyed have voted in a minimum of 2 of the last 4 general elections. Voters with a less frequent voting history were allowed in the sample to account for younger voters and first-time voters.

Link here for more details on the 2nd Congressional District polling data.