Arkansas Election Line: Womack, Ross are ‘Safe’

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Blake Rutherford (blakesthinktank.com) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

In the Third and Fourth Congressional Districts, there are clear favorites for Congressional election.

3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
The Arkansas Election Line rates the Third District U.S. Congress race as "Safe Womack."

The Republican tilt of the 3rd District overwhelmingly favors the GOP nominee Rogers Mayor Steve Womack. Fresh off his narrow victory over State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, Womack now faces Democratic challenger David Whitaker in the fall.

The 3rd District has not been very competitive for Democrats since the 1992 general election in which Democrat John Van Winkle lost to Republican Tim Hutchinson by about 5,000 votes. Since then, as the population base has grown and the district has narrowed, the 3rd District has bent more and more conservative.

Whitaker is a fine fellow and he has true Democratic stripes. He’s likely to rally the Democratic Party base in the district like other predecessors such as Berta Seitz or Jan Judy.

This race will be more about Womack’s blending with the Republican party apparatus.  He was elected on the strength of his pro-business, chamber support. Bledsoe was the GOP party insider and there was plenty of bad blood between the two camps in the hard-fought run-off. We don’t believe there will be enough lingering hostility from the primaries to give an opening to Whitaker.

4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
The Arkansas Election Line rates the Fourth District U.S. Congress race as "Safe Ross."

U.S. Rep. Mike Ross, D-Prescott, is the most attuned federally elected official from Arkansas. He quickly sensed voter dissatisfaction with cap-and-trade legislation, bailouts and health care. He rose to national prominence as the poster child for conservative Democrats — the Blue Dogs — in the great health care debate.

To say he’s in poor standing with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a definite understatement … and a compliment in the 4th District. The rural, conservative south Arkansas seat is not just full of right-of-center voters, it’s also epitomizes the anti-establishment electorate.

His opponent, long-time politico and former Miss Arkansas Beth Anne Rankin, will meet the minimum threshold for traditional Republican opponents in this race. She’ll be badly outmatched on the fundraising front, but she’s a fine public speaker who will inspire her party faithful.  Barring big mistakes by Ross combined with an even larger anti-incumbent sentiment, Ross cruises to victory in November.

Link here for more analysis on the 3rd and 4th District races.

2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT (Central Arkansas)
The battleground election in central Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional district is likely to be the most discussed political race of the fall, even more than the state’s high-profile U.S. Senate race.

You could not have a more clearly defined choice of candidates between GOP nominee Tim Griffin, an attorney and former Bush staffer who worked in political operations with Karl Rove, and Democrat Joyce Elliott, a former educator and union organizer who has championed a number of progressive causes in the Arkansas legislature.

Male vs. female, white vs. black, conservative vs. liberal, Republican vs. Democrat: This race will leave little to the middle ground and it will certainly produce a bombardment on the airwaves in the Little Rock media market from third party groups that will rival the Lincoln-Halter Senate primary.

The Arkansas Election Line rates the 2nd District Congressional race as "Leans Griffin."

Griffin is a conservative candidate who has run a disciplined campaign with a consistent message of right-of-center policy positions. He is for a balanced budget, smaller government, and less regulation and he’s opposed to most, if not all, of Pres. Obama’s policies regarding health care, the environment, and job creation.

Elliott, a state senator, does not shy away from a fight and has often been a champion for the underprivileged and underrepresented in her years of public service at the state capitol. She too is a conservative budgeter and has votes for tax cuts in her record.  However, she views the role of government in a more activist light compared to her opponent and has advocated for expanded health care access, tougher environmental regulations, and a federal stimulus to stoke the economy.

Link here for more analysis on this race.