Arkansas Election Line: U.S. Senate race ‘safe’ for Boozman

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Blake Rutherford (blakesthinktank.com) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

The Arkansas Election Line preliminary general election report has the U.S. Senate race between U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., and U.S. Rep. John Boozman, R-Rogers as “Safe Boozman.”

Boozman cruised to an easy victory in the Republican primary this year despite his late entry in the crowded 8-man field. He has already managed to consolidate the support of several of his competitors including State Sen. Gilbert Baker, who will help Boozman in pockets of central Arkansas.

There are a number of other factors that we feel warrant ranking this particular race as "safe" for Boozman at this time.

• All polling data from last summer to last month indicates general election dissatisfaction for Lincoln. Head-to-head match-ups show Boozman with a comfortable lead over Lincoln. Independent voters are largely dissatisfied with Lincoln and have indicated a propensity to side with Republicans in the current political climate.

• Lincoln’s big pivot to the left in the Democratic primary with her acknowledgement of her swing vote in the health care debate, her support for the stimulus package and her embrace of Pres. Barack Obama (who has underwhelming support in Arkansas) will hurt her with independent Arkansas voters in the fall. Republicans will remind voters of this alliance with gusto and Lincoln should count on little to no support from any crossover votes this November.

• Lincoln also has miles and months to go to shore up her Democratic base. Despite the battle-tested toughness of her primary race, she only received 52% from Democratic voters versus Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. The remaining 48% are alienated and Lincoln has showed little deftness in reaching out to key constituencies she’ll need in the general election.

• Boozman will be introducing himself to many of these voters particularly in the First and Fourth Congressional Districts. It’s a lot easier to define yourself for the first time than to win back angry voters. We sense that this core constituency could be swayed by Lincoln’s powerful seat as Agriculture Chairman, but for now, they embody the essence of the anti-incumbency mood that prevails in the state.

• There will be additional candidates in this U.S. Senate race owing to the Green Party and Independent Trevor Drown. Mickey Mouse is always good for a few write-in votes, too. As of this snapshot, we don’t see any of these candidacies making a big dent in the final poll results come November.

Link here for more analysis of the Lincoln-Boozman race.