Poll shows Boozman with big lead over Lincoln, Halter

A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows U.S. Rep. John Boozman, R-Rogers, with a huge lead over either Democratic candidate Boozman may face in the general election for U.S. Senate.

The Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race will see U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter face each other in a June 8 runoff election. Lincoln and Halter received 44.5% and 42.5% of the votes, respectively, in the May 18 primary. D.C. Morrison captured 13%.

Boozman was the big winner in the May 18 primary, surviving a a field of seven other GOP candidates with 53% of the votes.

The Rasmussen poll shows Boozman with a 66% to 28% lead over Lincoln, and a 60% to 33% lead over Halter. A survey of 500 likely voters was conducted May 19 by Rasmussen Reports.

“In short, the race at this juncture is an uphill struggle for the Democratic candidate in a state where the national health care bill continues to rankle voters who register much higher opposition than voters nationwide,” Rasmussen noted in its report. “While 56% of voters nationally favor repeal of the health care bill, 72% of Arkansas voters feel that way, including 60% who Strongly Favor repeal. Only 24% oppose repeal, including 18% who Strongly Oppose it.”

Roby Brock, a political analyst/reporter at TalkBusiness.net, former state Senate candidate and former head of the Arkansas Election Commission, said the new poll shows that the general election will be Boozman’s to lose. Brock says health care is an important issue, but thinks the overall anti-incumbent, anti-Obama mood also is driving Boozman’s lead.

“Boozman, by virtue of being a Republican against the Obama administration’s and Congressional Democrats’ agendas, benefits,” Brock explained. “Right now, Boozman is still largely unknown to a lot of voters outside of the 3rd District. Some of his support is simply anti-Lincoln, anti-Halter since their race has dominated the primary season.”

What will the Democratic nominee have to do to narrow the margin and have a chance against Boozman in November?

Brock says: “If it’s Lincoln, she’ll have to make a stronger case that her experience is an asset not a liability. Halter is running as the ‘change’ candidate, promising to fix a ‘broken Washington.’ They’ll both have to sell their message effectively to voters while at the same time contrasting themselves to Boozman. Lincoln will have to prove that her experience is better than Boozman’s decade of service. Halter’s ‘I’m not part of Washington’ message will be contrast with Boozman having been part of the D.C. culture for the last 9 1/2 years. Either way, expect to see Boozman’s voting record from the Bush years thoroughly dredged in this general election.”

And what does Boozman need to do to maintain a winning margin come Nov. 2?

Brock gave a concise response: “Raise money, visit areas where you need to perform well and where you’re not well-known, and say as little as possible. The only phrase Boozman needs to repeat as often as he can until polls show this race tightening is: ‘I’m John Boozman and I approved this message.’”