Arkansas Election Line: Boozman, Womack ‘Safe’ in primary race

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Blake Rutherford (blakesthinktank.com) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

The Arkansas Election Line has issued its “final thoughts” on several statewide races.

U.S. SENATE
GOP Primary – Safe U.S. Rep. John Boozman
Democratic Primary – Toss Up between U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter
U.S. Senate (November prediction) – Leans GOP

“The real question here is can John Boozman or Blanche Lincoln win without a run-off. I won’t be surprised if either do. Conversely, a run-off in either primary won’t be a shock,” Brock noted in his analysis. “I do not see Bill Halter winning without a run-off in the Democratic primary, nor do I see a GOP challenger besting Boozman in this race on Tuesday night.”

3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
U.S. Congress – District 3 – Safe GOP
GOP Primary – Leans to Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (new rating)
Democratic Primary – Whitaker unopposed

“Steve Womack appears to be the front-runner in this race. Not only has he led the few polls that have come out in this race, but all other candidates seem focused on bringing him down a few notches,” Brock noted. “My gut tells me that Cecile Bledsoe makes the run-off against Womack, but Gunner DeLay remains in the hunt and I hear he’s been working a pretty good ground game despite his absence from the headlines.”

LT. GOVERNOR
Lieutenant Governor – Leans Democrat
GOP Primary – Leans Mark Darr (new rating)
Democratic Primary – Sen. Shane Broadway unopposed

SECRETARY OF STATE
Secretary of State – Leans Democrat
GOP Primary – Rep. Mark Martin unopposed
Democratic Primary – Leans Pat O’Brien (new rating – runoff possible)

“In the Secretary of State’s race, Pat O’Brien has put enough points on TV to establish himself as the front-runner in this race. My sources confirm this notion privately. But if he can’t close the deal on Tuesday, the race heads to a run-off with likely second place finisher Mark Wilcox, the state land commissioner,” Brock explained.

LAND COMMISSIONER
Land Commissioner – Leans Democrat
GOP Primary – John Thurston unopposed
Democratic Primary – Toss Up (new rating – runoff likely between Rep. Monty Davenport and L.J. Bryant)

“It appears that Monty Davenport, who enjoys much grassroots support from courthouse officials and his fellow state legislators, has been matched by the earned media and strategic paid media efforts of L.J. Bryant. Again, we’ll revisit this race post-primary,” Brock said.

Link here for The Arkansas Election Line notes on Arkansas’ 1st, 2nd and 4th Congressional Districts.