Womack releases poll showing lead over Bledsoe, DeLay

Rogers Mayor Steve Womack released a poll Wednesday (April 7) conducted by Wilson Research Strategies  that shows Womack with an impressive lead over State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe and Fort Smith attorney Gunner DeLay.

Naturally, Womack’s opponents are suspicious of the poll, with one candidate accusing the Womack campaign of trying to “cook the books.”

Bledsoe, DeLay and Womack are considered the frontrunners among the eight candidates in the GOP primary for the 3rd Congressional District race.

According to the poll, Womack has 31% support from likely GOP voters, with Bledsoe at 12% and DeLay at 11%. Benton County Judge Mike Moore came in at 5% and Bernard Skoch had 3% of likely voter support. None of the other candidates captured more than 1%, and 34% of those poll were undecided.

If valid, the poll also provides credence to the belief that the May 18 primary election will result in a runoff battle (held June 8) between the top two vote getters.

The Wilson Strategies polling summary noted: “Steve Womack is in good shape in the GOP primary campaign for Arkansas 3 congressional district. He has the strongest name identification and favorability of the major candidates, and he leads on the ballot by nearly twenty points.”

If the Womack lead persists, expect the other candidates to “resort to negative campaigning in order to change the dynamics of the race,” added the Wilson Strategies summary.

Wilson Strategies on April 5-6 contacted by telephone 400 likely GOP primary election voters to gather the poll results. The margin of error is +/-4.9%. (The City Wire made several attempts by phone and e-mail to get more detail from the Womack camp about the polling methodology. The key concern of The City Wire is the geographic breakdown of the polling. However, we post this story without comment from Womack’s campaign in the spirit of giving Womack the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn’t risk credibility by releasing a poll skewed by an unrealistic concentration of the 400 likely voters in Benton and Washington counties.)

With the 3rd District historically voting in favor of Republicans, it is likely the GOP primary winner will in November defeat Fayetteville attorney David Whitaker, the lone Democrat in the 3rd District race.

Roby Brock, a political analyst/reporter at TalkBusiness.net, former state Senate candidate and former head of the Arkansas Election Commission, said he was surprised by Womack’s lead. Brock has used Wilson Strategies to poll for the Talk Business Quarterly poll.

“The Wilson Research poll released by the Womack campaign is obviously very favorable for him. I’m a little surprised that there is as much separation between Womack and the following two candidates — Bledsoe and DeLay. But with more than one-third of voters undecided, this race still has a long ways to go,” Brock said.

Poll results also show Womack with higher name recognition and a higher favorable rating compared to Bledsoe and DeLay.

• Bledsoe
56% name recognition
26% favorable rating
7% unfavorable rating

• DeLay
69% name recognition
31% favorable rating
15% unfavorable rating

• Womack
81% name recognition
53% favorable rating
5% unfavorable rating

Brock offered some interesting perspective on Womack’s high name recognition.

“I’d note that Womack’s name ID is pretty strong, which means that a lot of those undecided voters may have already passed on his candidacy and are looking at other candidates in the race,” Brock said.

The DeLay campaign suggests the Womack poll is flawed, and issued this statement to The City Wire: “Our internal polling and Womack’s internal polling are way off. Whether the numbers are accurate depends on the voter turn out model used by the polling firm. For instance, if we did a poll and 50% of the respondents were from Sebastian County it would heavily skew the numbers in our favor. The fact they did not disclose the percentage polled from each county makes his numbers highly suspicious. But it is reasonable that his camp would try to ‘cook the books’ because he has a ton of bad press lately.”

Keith Emis, a consultant with the Bledsoe campaign, said Womack must release a geographic breakdown and other polling methodology. Without those “key details,” Emis said, the results are meaningless.

“For this to be credible they have to give you their internals, and obviously they didn’t do that,” Emis said.