The Arkansas Election Line: U.S. Senate primaries evaluated

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Blake Rutherford (blakesthinktank.com) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

The Arkansas Election Line maintains that the U.S. Senate seat still "Leans Republican" in the fall; however, a shift is noted in the two Senate primaries.

GOP PRIMARY
In the Republican primary, The Arkansas Election Line moves the rating for the race from "Lean Boozman" to "Safe Boozman."

Boozman appears received by the GOP establishment and even some of the dissident TEA Party factions that will influence the Republican primary to a degree, according to Brock’s analysis.

Boozman’s fundraising in the first quarter (including his transfer of Congressional funds) puts him in the lead with money, and polling results secure Boozman has been as the front-runner.

“He also leads in polling results, including a strong lead in our Talk Business Poll where he polled at 46%. All of these factors have started speculation that Boozman could win without a run-off,” Brock noted. “I still think this is unlikely and I still view State Sen. Gilbert Baker as the strongest challenger among the 7 remaining contenders to take Boozman into a run-off.”



Brock said the run-off factors favor Boozman because the 3rd District — which contains the bulk of GOP primary voters — will see a run-off among its Congressional primary candidates.



DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
In the Democratic primary, the Arkansas Election Line moves this race from "Leans Lincoln" to "Toss-up."

“Let’s be clear: this rating is not based upon one debate performance. It is based on the confluence of events occurring in this heated Senate race. I believe Sen. Blanche Lincoln would win the race if it was today. But it’s not,” Brock explained.

Brock made the other points about the Democratic primary.
• Lincoln still has great advantages in terms of ground game, party faithful, name ID, and money.

• Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has sewn up many disaffected Democrats. He has momentum and he’s made this race competitive with money and message.  We’ll see how well his microtargeting impacts his GOTV effort.

• Another factor that makes this race a "toss-up" is the third Democrat in the field, D.C. Morrison. He is more conservative than some of the Republican candidates running.  But he presents an alternative to Lincoln and Halter as well as has appeal to a small, narrow segment of the Democratic party.

• One final thought on this "toss-up" rating: While I’m confident that Lincoln leads at this point, there are few political observers I talk to who say they’d be surprised by the eventual winner of this primary race. That by definition is what "toss-up" indicates.

Link here for more analysis on the two primary races.