The Arkansas Election Line: Gov. Beebe ‘safe’

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Blake Rutherford (blakesthinktank.com) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

According to the Arkansas Election Line, the governor’s race is labeled as “Safe Democrat,” with the current convention wisdom suggesting that Gov. Mike Beebe will gain reelection in November’s general election.

The AEL notes that central Arkansas businessman and Republican Jim Keet is a “credible and formidable opponent” in the gubernatorial race, but “popular incumbent Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe is the strongest political brand in state politics.”

Following are a few points of analysis on the race presented by The AEL.
• Beebe has a massive fundraising advantage in the race over late-comer Keet. Beebe’s job approval and popularity have consistently remained above 70% throughout a tumultuous year of politics that has badly damaged the reputation of incumbent federal lawmakers.

• Beebe’s common sense and conservative governing style, especially on budget issues, have thrust his tenure into the national spotlight as a model state chief executive. He is not branded with the Obama, Pelosi or Reed monikers as easily as Democratic Senate and Congressional candidates. There is a clear distinction between an Obama Democrat in Arkansas and a Beebe Democrat as we’ve written before.

• Keet will have ammunition to use against the popular Governor. A doggedly high unemployment rate, net job losses, budget challenges at the state level, and voter angst toward all incumbents will give Keet opportunities to make the race more competitive.

• If the election were held today, Beebe wins in a landslide by a 70-30% margin. However, there are many months to go before November and while Keet will meticulously chip away at this lead, there will have to be a huge reversal of fortune for Keet to upset Beebe this fall.

Link here for more analysis on this race.