Lessons from 2009 (Opinion)

As 2008 came to a close, the headline on my column declared “Good Riddance” to a year full of tragedy, financial markets turmoil and recession.

My prediction was that 2009 would be “a year of survival of the fittest. Businesses big and small with little or no debt, cash in the bank and strong brands will prevail and be positioned to grow and thrive in the recovery. Highly leveraged companies and individuals who moved away from financial fundamentals will suffer the consequences.”

We could say the same thing going into 2010, with an emphasis on those businesses that are ready to prosper and take giant leaps ahead of competitors in the slow recovery.

Here are some things we learned in 2009 that would serve us well to remember:

• Wall Street financial honchos are smart after all. They created the global financial meltdown with exotic, unsafe investments in subprime mortgages, among other ploys. Then the government bails out most of them, their profits soar with the stock market rebound, the money is paid back to the government, and now it’s business as usual with massive bonuses and no substantive changes in regulatory oversight to keep it all from happening again.

 • The U.S. economy and financial markets are remarkably resilient, but we have to be uneasy about China’s substantial ownership of U.S. bonds and brace ourselves for inflation and at least typical, if not higher, interest rates.

• President Barack Obama’s idea for change and new vision in Washington was nothing more than taking us back to the wonderful days of President Jimmy Carter. Substantially bigger government this year will be followed by significant tax increases. His defining first-year achievement of health care reform will become his albatross at re-election time.
• Commuting sentences of inmates and failing to maintain good eating habits and proper exercise will result in unwanted outcomes. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee has learned the hard way.
• Aaron Jones, the lawyer and real estate developer whose million-dollar Chenal Valley home burned down allegedly by his own hands instead of those of a perpetrator, reminded us that where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
• Former lawyer Gene Cauley, who seemingly began the year as a multimillionaire but will head to federal prison with seemingly no money and dozens of real estate deals unraveled, reminded us that if you sleep with dogs, you’ll wake with fleas.
• Mobile communication devices are addictive. That bodes well for telecommunication-related industries but badly for interpersonal communication skills.
• Our consumer-based economy has suffered in part because people who bought stuff they couldn’t afford on credit stopped spending, started saving more and improved their personal balance sheets. Go figure.
• E-mail messaging remains a time-consuming yet important force in the workplace. I sent 7,769 e-mails from my computer this year, which is about 32 per workday, and excludes iPhone messages sent.
• Social media have a place and purpose, but limits must be self-imposed by users. The volume of drivel on Facebook and Twitter is wearing me down and forcing me to manage the flow of information. However, I know that it’s valuable to have access to 1,023 Facebook friends and 612 Twitter followers. For Arkansas Business Publishing Group, those two social networking sites with our non-drivel posts generated 49,013 visits to our Web sites in 2009 compared with just 3,243 in 2008.
• Niche publishing really does have a bright future. Arkansas Business celebrated its 25th anniversary, and its paid circulation is 13 percent higher than it was five years ago. No daily newspaper can say that.

Best wishes for 2010! 

Jeff Hankins can be reached via e-mail at [email protected].