Perspective on employment

The federal Labor Department reported Friday that 539,000 jobs were cut in April far fewer than the 620,000 job cuts expected by economists. Some market watchers suggested that temporary hiring by the U.S. Census Bureau to assist with the 2010 survey helped the employment stats.  Nevertheless, the U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 8.5% in March to 8.9% in April.

Jerome Idaszak, an associate editor with The Kiplinger Letter, reported Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate will hit 10% in early 2010 before economic conditions improve.

“That’s because when the recovery does begin in the second half of this year, it won’t be strong. Businesses will extend hours for existing staff and use overtime if needed to fill new orders. New hiring will happen only when the recovery picks up a little bit of steam, perhaps in the second half of 2010,” Idaszak noted in this report.

Idaszak makes several points in his short essay.

• Another promising sign: The number of employees working part time because they can’t get full-time work held steady at 8.9 million in April, the Labor Department said. However, that total number has risen 3.7 million over the past 12 months.

• Hiring in April continued in health care: 17,000 jobs were added, but growth in that sector is slowing. Health care added 30,000 jobs a month during 2008 but is adding only 17,000 jobs a month on average so far this year

• The federal government added 66,000 jobs, mostly due to hiring temporary workers for the 2010 Census.

• Job losses continue at department stores, auto dealers and building supply stores. Layoffs in the construction industry may be bottoming out. In April, 110,000 jobs were shed compared with 155,000 in March and a monthly average loss of 120,000 over the past six months.

• Job losses will total about 4.5 million this year on the heels of a 2.7 million net job decline in 2008. So far this year, employers have eliminated 2.7 million jobs, and 5.7 million jobs have been shed since the recession began in December 2007.