Nationwide auto sales improve (barely); Auto-related jobs down in Arkansas

Nationwide sales of autos in April is expected to be 859,000 units, a 30.8% decrease compared to April 2008, but a 0.5% increase over March 2009, according to Edmunds.com.

A bit of good news for an industry in need of anything positive is that Edmunds increased the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of auto sales to 10 million, up from 9.1 million in February.

The Edmunds report came on the same day that General Motors received a $2 billion loan from the Treasury Department to stave off bankruptcy.

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and GM domestic units is estimated to be 46.2% in April 2009, down from 48.4% in April 2008 and up from 45.1% in March 2009.

“Given April sales, we estimate the SAAR is up to 10 million, compared with 9.1 in February,” Jesse Toprak, Edmunds’ executive director of industry analysis, noted in a statement. “The industry is slowly picking up much-needed momentum but there is still a lot of risk: a demand stimulus like a ‘cash for clunkers’ program could help while an automaker bankruptcy could hurt, depending on how consumer confidence is affected.”

FORT SMITH AREA REPORT
Larry Rath, president of Putnam Automotive Group and Putnam Toyota in Altus, Okla., said the local industry is down, but not near the 30% decrease reported by Edmunds.

“We’re down a little less than 10% for the quarter,” Rath said. “That’s obviously not where we’d like to be, but it’s much better than” the nationwide figures.

With better new vehicles produced, low prices and low interest rates, Rath said the conditions are right for a rebound in auto sales. But there is just one thing missing, he admits.

“We are just waiting for that (consumer confidence) to return,” Rath said. “When that comes back, everything comes back with it.”

But Rath declined to predict when auto sales nationwide will improve, saying, “About the time I think it’s going to get better, it goes the other way. I think my predictor is busted.”

ARKANSAS AUTO JOBS
There is more to the health of the auto sector than just effect on the thousands of auto dealer-related jobs in the state.

According to figures from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, between April 2007 and September 2008 the state lost 1,732 jobs in motor vehicle related manufacturing industries. In April 2007, 10,079 were employed in the sector, with 8,347 jobs remaining in the sector in September 2008.

The Arkansas Economic Development Commission reports 12,050 jobs statewide related directly to the auto sector, with another 12,211 jobs supporting the direct jobs. Those 24,261 direct and indirect jobs result in an annual economic impact of $82.52 million, according to the AEDC report.

SALES PREDICTIONS
“If you like underdogs, you’ll enjoy the April forecast, since Ford market share is expected to be higher than it was this time last year and Hyundai/Kia market share should surpass Nissan,” Michelle Krebs, senior editor of Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com, noted in the statement. “Honda is expected to have the largest month-over-month increase of any major manufacturer, while Toyota is expected to suffer a significant decrease since the company reduced its incentives spend, seemingly misreading the price-sensitive marketplace.”

• Chrysler: 89,000 units in April 2009, down 39.2% compared to April 2008 and down 11.1% from March 2009.

• Ford: 143,000 units in April 2009, down 27.2% compared to April 2008 and up 10.5% from March 2009.

• General Motors: 165,000 units in April 2009, down 36% compared to April 2008 and up 6.2% from March 2009.

• Honda: 99,000 units in April 2009, down 26.9% from April 2008 and up 11.9% from March 2009.

• Hyundai: 62,000 units in April 2009, down 10.9% from April 2008 and down 5.6% from March 2009.

• Nissan: 55,000 units in April 2009, down 27.3% from April 2008 and down 17.3% from March 2009.

• Toyota: 130,000 units in April 2009, down 40.2% from April 2008 and down 1.9% from March 2009.