From Evil to Upheaval

Harvard historian Niall Ferguson reports that the “Axis of Evil” will most certainly be supplanted by the “Axis of Upheaval.”

Writing for “Foreign Policy,” Ferguson argues that global economic problems combined with political and social turmoil could mean that the world’s threats will likely come from Somalia, Russia and Mexico rather than the original members of the Axis of Evil (Iran, Iraq and North Korea).

“The bad news for Bush’s successor, Barack Obama, is that he now faces a much larger and potentially more troubling axis — an axis of upheaval,” Ferguson wrote. “This axis has at least nine members, and quite possibly more. What unites them is not so much their wicked intentions as their instability, which the global financial crisis only makes worse every day. Unfortunately, that same crisis is making it far from easy for the United States to respond to this new ‘grave and growing danger.’”

Ferguson, who has written extensively on the “brutal upheaval” of the 20th Century, said there are three primary causes of world turmoil: Ethnic disintegration, economic volatility, and empires in decline.

Other Ferguson points include:
• “The democratic governments in Kabul and Islamabad are two of the weakest anywhere. Among the biggest risks the world faces this year is that one or both will break down amid escalating violence. Once again, the economic crisis is playing a crucial role. Pakistan’s small but politically powerful middle class has been slammed by the collapse of the country’s stock market. Meanwhile, a rising proportion of the country’s huge population of young men are staring unemployment in the face. It is not a recipe for political stability.”

• “This club is anything but exclusive. Candidate members include Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey, where there are already signs that the economic crisis is exacerbating domestic political conflicts. And let us not forget the plague of piracy in Somalia, the renewed civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the continuing violence in Sudan’s Darfur region, and the heart of darkness that is Zimbabwe under President Robert Mugabe. The axis of upheaval has many members. And it’s a fairly safe bet that the roster will grow even longer this year.”

• “Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.”