Here we go again
by January 11, 2009 6:59 pm 69 views
Here we go again with this collective self-loathing about the future of American cultural, military, political and financial prestige and power.
This gnashing of east coast educated teeth typically happens near the end of a conservative presidency — if one can call conservative the administration of President George Bush.
The thinking is that conservative presidents must appease the mongrels of the conservative base; you know, us folks here in middle America who tote a gun and a bible and a few beers to watch a stock car race or snare catfish with our bare hands. Said appeasement, of course, forces the conservative president to do things that dramatically diminishes the domestic and international standing of the U.S.
In 1987, Paul Kennedy published “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers,” in which he compared the rise and fall of European powers — primarily the British Empire — with what was happening to the United States. Countries that spend too much on national defense and take a hard line on foreign policy — two legacies of President Reagan — are ripe for decline, Kennedy argued.
Without question the above is a simplification of Kennedy’s thesis, but not by much.
Joseph Nye Jr. published “Bound To Lead” in 1990 that did much to debunk the theory of American decline. An important argument made by Nye was that American “decline” in terms of global production, domestic investments, economic growth was natural and preferred following the devastation of World War II. He said the resurgence of European and Asian (China and Japan) economies after the war was in fact the goal of U.S. policy because those stronger nations were tied together through increased economic trade.
“The American share of global power resources exaggerated by World War II went through a natural and steady decline during the next quarter century and then stabilized,” Nye wrote in his 1990 book.
But here we go again.
Articles in our “leading” national newspapers and the pundits on MSNBC, CNN and other pseudo-news networks cite terrific and numerous anecdotes of how the U.S. is held in abject disregard around the globe because Bush was 100 percent wrong on every domestic and policy decision he made. America, they claim with a solemnity intended to impart credibility, is on life support.
Thomas Fingar, a top analyst in the U.S. intelligence community, said in September 2008 that, essentially, the U.S. future is one of serious erosion.
“The U.S. will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished,” Fingar said in a Washington Post article. He saw U.S. leadership eroding “at an accelerating pace” in “political, economic and arguably, cultural arenas.”
Even conservative scholar Robert Kagan has written a lengthy piece suggesting that President Barack Obama will preside over an America in decline.
Michael Fullilove, a visiting Fellow with the Brookings Institute, says Kagan is wrong, and that if anything, Obama will preside over an America that “demonstrates the frailties of the declinist thesis.”
Fullilove, no fan of President Bush, marvels at how “the idea that America’s moment is ending has hardened into conventional wisdom” merely because of a dislike for President George Bush.
“Yet the analytical underpinnings of the argument have never been sturdy,” Fullilove noted. “Notwithstanding the Bush administration’s best efforts, the $14 trillion US economy still looms over all the others. Washington spends as much on its military as the rest of the world combined, and it can project its power anywhere on earth. American culture is the world’s default culture; American opinions shape global opinions.”
Indeed, we are the default culture. Of the top 10 most valuable global brands, eight are American, and of the 100 most recognized brands around the world, 52 are those with American companies/products.
“No country on Earth is better at building brands and creating new consumers than the United States,” according to the report from Interbrand, the leading global market research firm.
But branding isn’t power or influence, Kind Reader might retort. OK, let’s look at other arenas of power and influence.
Consider the following excerpts from a report compiled by Kiplinger economists:
• "Adjusted for cost of living, U.S. is tops among large, industrialized nations. In the whole world, it trails only Qatar, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore and Brunei."
• "In housing, the average U.S. family enjoys nearly twice as much living space as the Germans, French or Brits. Even the 20% of Americans with the lowest incomes tend to have larger residences than is typical for households in Western Europe."
• "For proof of the U.S.’ economic prowess, look no further than what’s happening these days to U.S. Treasury bills. In the face of global recession, investors worldwide are flocking to that safe haven, pushing yields to zero in recent weeks."
• "In 2005, U.S. manufacturing output topped $1.7 trillion. In comparison, Japan cranked out $950 billion in manufactured goods and China, about $780 billion. Since then, the U.S. has doubtless lost some of its edge, but it still solidly leads."
• "Since 1995, American industrial output per hour of labor has grown faster than in most industrial countries, averaging a healthy 2% increase a year. Among G-8 nations, only the United Kingdom has outpaced the U.S. since 2000, with Japan notching growth just below America’s pace and others significantly lower."
Nye noted in 1990 that the two real dangers of American decline are complacency in managing domestic policy and failing to invest in the things that allow the U.S. to maintain its international leadership.
“Neither is warranted. The United States remains the largest and richest power with the greatest capacity to shape the future. And in a democracy, the choices are the people’s,” Nye wrote in 1990.
More than 18 years later, Nye’s statement continues to hold true. And it’s our choice to not believe those who errantly cite the decline of the U.S. for political convenience.