New Year, New Developments (Editorial)

Now that everyone has made it through all those lists of Top Stories of 2007 regarding every subject under the sun, it’s time to wade through all the predictions for 2008 on every subject under the sun.

Most are ridiculous. Some are thought-provoking, such as those picked by The Futurist magazine. Its annual Outlook report has spotlighted the emergence of such developments as the Internet, virtual reality and the end of the Cold War in the past. This year’s top pick? “The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025.

“Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025.”

That prediction by James Canton, author of “The Extreme Future,” ought to revive some of the hopes that always accompany a new year.

We have never been into making yearly predictions. We’re no better than the local weather folks who often miss giving the right forecast just a couple of days into the future.

But it’s probably safe to say that unless some disaster occurs, either natural or man-made, the biggest story this year will be the election of a new president.

We won’t go so far as to predict a Democratic or Republican win, but one thing we can safely predict is that the events leading up to the election will have an impact on business and the markets.

The good news, if past history is any indication of what we can expect: The market has posted gains 80 percent of the time in presidential election years. The average election-year gain has been 8.6 percent. That’s better than the 6.7 gain of 2007.

Financial professionals expect gross domestic product to grow modestly in 2008, at 2.5 percent.

In Arkansas, there’s no election for governor, and any contest for Mark Pryor’s Senate seat has been eerily quiet.

There’s no legislative session unless a special session is called, something Gov. Mike Beebe seems reluctant to do unless there’s a very compelling reason.

The newly private Alltel, which, we’re thankful, will remain in Arkansas, has its eye on the coming federal wireless spectrum auction, and that could prove to be a real boon in expanding the nation’s fifth-largest wireless carrier.

Trucking still faces problems with the slowdown, as does the forest products industry. And of course real estate has a way to go before an expected turnaround comes about. Banking remains solid here because Arkansas bankers had more sense than some of the major financial institutions in the nation and didn’t get carried away with subprime loans.

The dreaded “R” word, recession, is still being bandied about, but despite all the national challenges, we choose to remain optimistic as the new year begins.