Election Mania Turns Millions into Experts (Jeff Hankins Commentary)

With the rapid growth of blogs and the interactivity that media and political Web sites provide, this country suddenly has millions of political experts, prognosticators and opinions.

It’s healthy for the country and the democratic process, but it’s giving campaigns, the pollsters and the media fits.

So why would I jump into the presidential election analysis game? The same reasons that everyone else is – it’s easy, historic, challenging, important and fun. Arkansas’ role in so-called Super Duper Tuesday is just a few weeks away.

Everybody has a slightly different theory on what’s happened and what’s expected. Network television and the daily newspapers are trying to remain relevant amid information, trend and opinion overload on the Web. The very commentators who are talking about candidates flip-flopping on issues are changing their views on the race regularly – with the latter reasonably justified because voters from Iowa to New Hampshire keep surprising us.

While watching results from the New Hampshire primaries, my wife asked me whom I would be supporting. Fifteen minutes later she was still searching for an answer as I proceeded to outline a major reason why each of the candidates couldn’t possibly win:

On the Democratic side, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton is a woman with a fairly liberal record; U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is an African American with little political experience and no executive experience; U.S. Sen. John Edwards is an anti-business trial lawyer who was already on a losing presidential ticket.

On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a Mormon; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is a southern Baptist Christian with a moderate fiscal record; U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona would be starting his presidency at 72 years old; former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani couldn’t lead or hold together his own family; and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson is just a terrible campaigner.

By putting two of these individuals into the general election, this country is likely to make at least one break-through choice. Which one? I continue to think Clinton will become the first woman president because, among other reasons, she can win all the major electoral college states except Texas.

All this talk of “change” by the candidates is exhausting because it’s a given – this is a wide open race to succeed a two-term president. The speeches at every turn are focused on feel-good issues, and Huckabee and Obama are the very best in this election at delivering them.

Here in Arkansas, conventional wisdom is that Huckabee will win big in the GOP primary, and former Arkansas first lady Clinton will get a solid yet closer victory on the Democratic side assuming Obama takes a block of black and independent votes from her. Unfortunately, Arkansas’ results won’t be overly relevant that day, when California, New York and Illinois will be the biggest prizes.

Huckabee hasn’t enjoyed the financial support from Arkansas that Bill Clinton did during his run. Clinton had the benefit of being a powerful sitting governor, but one would think 10 years of political appointments might have benefited Huckabee more.

The big-money Republicans in Arkansas simply aren’t keen on his tax record nor his social conservatism.

Hillary Clinton’s fund-raising efforts in Arkansas might improve for a general election, when the Democratic office holders from Gov. Mike Beebe on down might engage more. But she hurt herself here in recent years by generally distancing herself from Arkansas.

Just know that like the millions of others out there offering opinions on what’s going to happen, I reserve the right to let my views evolve as well.

Did you notice former U.S. Sen. Tim Hutchinson, a Republican from Arkansas, prominently on stage with Huckabee the night of the Iowa victory? Huckabee and the Hutchinsons – the other being former U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson – spent years fighting over control of the Arkansas Republican Party.

Interesting development for sure.

(Jeff Hankins is the publisher of Arkansas Business, He can be reached via e-mail at [email protected].)