Wonks, Gurus Measure Market

(For a dossier on Jeff, Kathy, and Paul, click here.)

When reporters in Northwest Arkansas are looking for detailed information on real estate, economics, transportation, employment or a host of other market data, they often turn to one of the area’s three most-quoted market experts.

Search the Web archives of regional newspapers for “Jeff Collins,” “Kathy Deck” or “Paul Justus,” and scores of results pop up.

But there’s more to those names than just numbers and statistics.

Though each of the three has a slightly different reason for getting waist-deep into reams of data that would glaze over eyes of the layperson, each of the trio is motivated to see Northwest Arkansas grow in a sensible manner.

Accurate, useful market data is a vital part of that goal. Providing that data for the region’s civic and business leaders is their job.

Collins is an economist and partner with Streetsmart Data Services Inc. in Johnson, Deck is director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas and Justus is regional planner at the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission in Springdale.

The trio all studied economics as undergraduates, Collins at Colorado State University, Deck at The College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. and Justus at St. Louis University.

Collins and Deck pursued the study further, with Collins earning a Ph.D. in the field from the University of Tennessee and Deck a master’s from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Justus earned a master’s in urban design from Kansas University.

The work-related challenges they cited were, in essence, issues of communication. A big part of their jobs is translating statistics lingo and economese into English.

All three agreed the leading factor in determining the overall health of an area’s economy is the growth and quality of jobs.

Narrative Numbers

Jeff Collins

Title: Partner

Years at current position: 1

Age: 44

City: Johnson

Development Northwest Arkansas could use: Improved highway infrastructure

Data resource most often used: Bureau of Labor Statistics Web site

Last book of fiction read: “Blue at the Mizzen” by Patrick O’Brian)

Collins joined Streetsmart in January 2007 after a stint as director of the UA’s Center for Business and Economic Research. He’s an economist by education, but became involved in real estate somewhat incidentally.

Several years ago, he and his wife had the opportunity to invest some money. At the time, the stock market wasn’t exactly on fire, so they decided to buy some apartment buildings.

Since then, his understanding of the real estate market has matured considerably, not the least because he works closely with appraiser and Streetsmart owner Tom Reed, Collins said.

Working at the data services company has given Collins an opportunity to get out and talk to the many players at all levels of the real estate business.

He talks to the people involved, the bankers, builders, developers, general contractors and others who have a first-hand perspective. Collins hears anecdotal information about market trends before they start showing up on paper. For instance, he might talk to a struggling builder well before any liens are filed.

“The numbers tell an after-the-fact story,” he said. “Now we’re watching the anecdotes bleed into the numbers.”

Understanding what’s happening in the market can be difficult when studying cells in a spreadsheet. Streetsmart weaves together a narrative from the data that will tell a story in a way that’s understandable, he said.

That’s no easy task.

“Articulating what you have in your head can be challenging,” Collins said. “When you’re busy, you have to depend on other people and you have to be able to communicate effectively with them.”

The ideal scenario is one in which coworkers understand one another intuitively “and with those folks, you hold onto them and pay them everything they’re worth,” he said.

The key to keep in mind with regard to the Northwest Arkansas economy is cautious optimism, Collins said. Despite recent turbulence, “the area is continuing to grow and add jobs.”

Economic Lens

Kathy Deck

Title: Director

Years at current position: 1

Age: 32

City: Fayetteville

Development Northwest Arkansas could use: Wider variety of restaurants and groceries

Data resource most often used: Census Bureau Web site

Last book of fiction read: “Bridge of Sighs” by Richard Russo)

Deck went to college with an interest in political science, and her sights set on law school. That all changed when she took a microeconomics course.

“I was hooked from the beginning,” she said of economics. “It spoke to me and it was relevant to all aspects of life.”

In the course of her education, she came to see nearly everything in life through the lens of economics.

Deck came to Northwest Arkansas when her husband was hired as a professor at the UA. A research assistant position opened up soon after and Deck was hired for the spot.

When Collins left as director of the CBER at the end of 2006, Deck was appointed to oversee the center in the interim. After a nationwide search to fill the position, Deck was named director in March 2007.

A large part of her job is assembling the Arvest Bank-sponsored Skyline Report. An enormous amount of data is collected for the quarterly real estate study.

Explaining complex issues in a way that makes intuitive sense to everyone takes a lot of work, Deck said. Because economics can be very nuanced, a quick sound byte often doesn’t do the full topic justice.

However, this only takes into account information that is obtainable. Some factors are more elusive.

The Holy Grail for many researchers would be to know what consumers’ demands are. This is tied to income levels and job growth figures, which are released every ten years by the U.S. Census Bureau. Analysts often make forecasts based more on supply than demand.

Deck advised those in Northwest Arkansas to practice due diligence when considering a big investment such as a new home.

“Do your research,” she said. “Don’t just believe everything you think you know, look into every decision.”

Whether it is a good time to remodel or make an addition or upgrade to a bigger home depends on one’s own situation as well as market conditions.

“Make sure that you’re prepared for a range of consequences and not just the best outcome,” she said.

Efficient Economies

Paul Justus

Title: Regional Planner

Years at current position: 8

Age: 57

City: Springdale

Development Northwest Arkansas could use: More use of New Urbanism planning principles

Data resource most often used: Census Bureau Web site

Last book of fiction read: “The Medici Giraffe” by Marina Belozerskaya)

Justus pursued a different path after finishing his undergraduate education. He wanted to know more about how cities work, and ways they could be improved.

“I’ve always been interested in how we can make our communities more efficient,” he said.

New urbanism – the design movement focused on creating more walkable, compact cities that are diverse in use – was an appealing idea to Justus. He wanted to help foster communities that work within their environments and that aren’t “totally dominated by the automobile,” he said.

In 1999, Justus started at the NWARPC, where he juggles several different research-oriented tasks.

“One of the big things we do is produce a long range transportation plan every five years,” he said.

He recently finished a report on dealing with storm water, and participated in an annual EPA storm water conference hosted in Rogers in June.

Justus has been studying geoclassical economics, which is the study of how land ownership and prices affect societies and economies. Tracking fluctuations in land prices and not just housing prices would help in understanding long-term economic cycles, he said.

Justus echoed Deck and Collins regarding the importance of job growth for an area’s economy. He noted that the UA is a stabilizing influence, in that it will steadily provide good jobs, but included many of the corporations based in the region in that assessment.

“They do fairly well even during a downturn,” he said.

Sustainability is something Justus brings up often when discussing the future of both Northwest Arkansas and the nation as a whole.

Public policy should encourage sustainable energy production, and given the right incentives, the free market will solve many of the nation’s energy needs, Justus said.

“There are some other things on the horizon we need to pay attention to,” he said. “We’ve got to tighten our belts, not just for the immediate bottom line, but for future generations as well,” he said.