Election Day Prognostication (Jeff Hankins Commentary)

We’re just a few weeks from election day, and it’s shaping up to be a very predictable event — a situation political pundits either love or hate.
I hold that the lovers are risk-averse types who need the unearned boost to their self-esteem that comes with a correct forecast.
The haters fear boredom more than they fear failure.
Every published poll points to a sweep by the Democrats, with the biggest prize of governor going to Attorney General Mike Beebe over Asa Hutchinson.
Zogby International is the only poll indicating a tight race, but I think that’s the same outfit that had John Kerry beating George W. Bush for president in Arkansas.
Hutchinson and groups that support him are banking on branding Beebe as a liberal and as an opponent of rural schools.
They will have a tough time making those labels stick because Beebe has a fairly moderate and progressive legislative record and his views on education have been impaired because of his obligation to represent the actions of the Legislature as attorney general.
If anything, Hutchinson is pandering to the rural school supporters because endorsing the status quo with school districts directly contradicts the fundamental conservative philosophy of more efficient government.
His unconditional support of the elimination of the sales tax on food is straightforward and a solid position.
But we still don’t know what spending he plans to eliminate or freeze.
Hutchinson has had an uphill climb from the get-go.
For whatever reasons, the Hutchinson brothers (the other being Tim) have been successful just once in statewide races.
Asa lost bids to be a U.S. senator and attorney general; Tim won a U.S. Senate race and then failed to be re-elected.
They have been regional candidates in Republican-rich Northwest Arkansas who couldn’t spark a following elsewhere. History is repeating itself.
Hutchinson has garnered what could be described only as marginal support from Gov. Mike Huckabee.
The Hutchinsons made a huge tactical error in the ’90s when they mistakenly fought Huckabee for leadership of the state Republican Party.
Beebe has avoided major mistakes in the race and has had plenty of money to deliver upbeat television messages.
At this point, he may not even have to go negative with his advertising.
But his long legislative record could still be positioned to haunt him in some areas with a late TV ad blitz by Hutchinson, and that could tighten the race.
The closest statewide race will be for lieutenant governor between unknown Democrat Bill Halter and feisty Republican Jim Holt.
All I hear about this race is that the new governor shouldn’t be allowed to leave the state or leave office for any reason lest one of these guys gets a promotion.
No one seems sure which is worse — Halter the “Unknown” or Holt the “Known.”
Democrat Dustin McDaniel is waltzing to a victory in the attorney general’s race.
Grand Old Party challenger Gunner Delay hasn’t made any issue against McDaniel stick through free media attention and won’t have enough money to change what the polls are showing.
(Jeff Hankins is the publisher of Arkansas Business in Little Rock.
He can be reached via e-mail at [email protected]. For more comment and feedback, visit his blog at www.arkansasbusiness.com/jeff.)