Area Retail Competition, Jobs Should Multiply

According to a bellwether survey conducted quarterly by staffing leader Manpower Inc., more U.S. employers expect to boost hiring than to reduce jobs during the first quarter. The Wall Street Journal reported it’s been five years since hiring expectations rose between the fourth-quarter survey and employers’ outlook for the first quarter, when seasonal variations are taken out of the data.

Locally, the continued population and income booms could translate into a 2004 retail rally, said Jeff Collins, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research in the University of Arkansas’ Walton College of Business.

“I think in the coming year, there will be a real growth in retail outlets,” he said. “I think that will be a good thing for consumers. I don’t know if it will be good for the retailers, but I think it will be good for consumers.”

Nationwide, Collins said, the economy should continue to improve, but the rate won’t be as great as the third quarter of 2003, when the growth in gross domestic product was 8.2 percent over the comparable quarter of 2002.

“A lot of forecasters are revising downward because that 8.2 percent was so high,” Collins said.

Collins said personal income will continue to improve during 2004 and that will spur spending. The employment outlook will also continue to improve, he said. Consumer confidence will continue to go up but not at the rate it reached in the late 1990s, he said.

“Consumer debt is high, but a lot of people reduced debt load by refinancing their homes,” Collins said.

The dollar will remain weak but that increases the demand for domestically produced goods, which will also help employment in the United States.

“The general sentiment is that people are feeling better about the economy,” Collins said. “They see things moving in the right direction, especially with the employment growth.”