Tolbert: New Poll Spells Good News For Arkansas Republicans

The City Wire posted a new statewide poll today that is good news for Arkansas Republicans on several fronts.

The poll was conducted by Impact Management Group, a political consulting firm in Arkansas that primarily advises Republican candidates and business clients.  The poll surveyed 1,202 Arkansas likely voters on February 12, 2014.  You can check out the full pull on their website, but here are the highlights.

1. Cotton Widens his Lead – The poll found 46% support Cong. Tom Cotton to 42% for Sen. Mark Pryor.  This four point lead is double Cotton’s lead when Impact polled this race in October.  This fits with the national trend working against Democrats nationally with the dismal rollout of ObamaCare in late 2013.

2. Asa and Ross are Tied –  The governor’s race is tied at 42%.  This race has stayed close in nearly every poll although the Ross campaign’s spending of a half million dollars in January seemed to move his numbers a few points.  A lot of money for a tied race.  See my post yesterday on the horrible new ad from the DGA in their effort to help Ross. A note from the RGA today points out a huge glaring fact that it overlooked – the DGA is attacking the policy of Obama in an effort to prop up its candidate.

“The latest DGA ad is embarrassing, sloppy and the height of hypocrisy. Democrats are now finding donors to finance their ads that attack President Obama and their own Democrat policies. From this astonishing DGA takedown of their own candidate, we are left to glean that their only strategy for 2014 is to raise boatloads of cash in order to hide from Obama’s terribly unpopular policies. The RGA calls on Mike Ross to either condemn the DGA ad or confirm that he is ashamed of his votes for the bailouts and the stimulus,” said Gail Gitcho, RGA Communications Director.

3. Griffin has a HUGE lead in the Lieutenant Governor’s Race – In the first poll I have seen on the LG race, they found a 15-point lead for Griffin who pulled in support from 45% of voters.  Roughly 30% are for Democratic candidate John Burkhalter.   Griffin’s advantages appear to be in several areas – a much stronger name ID as an incumbent Congressman, a 16-point lead in Griffin’s home district, which is also usually the strongest district for Democrats, and a 5-to-1 advantage among independent voters.

4. More Evidence Northeast Arkansas is Turning Red – I am reluctant to read too much into the crosstabs on the Congressional Districts on a statewide poll because you get into a smaller sample size. But this is the third or fourth poll in a row that I have seen strong leads for Republican candidates in AR1. Cotton leads there by two points, Asa by five (his best district in this poll), and Griffin by seven.  It is more evidence that Democrats will have an uphill climb in AR1.  But it seems that the party has found a sacrificial lamb to march out to try and help Ross and Pryor a bit with their margins.  Heber Springs Mayor Jackie McPherson is poised to announce his futile races against Cong. Rick Crawford tomorrow.  I post here about how far down the list the Democratic machine had to go to find someone to take their “deal” to be the name on the ballot.