Washington, D.C.-based Politico has a short analytical piece on how the 2014 swing elections for control of U.S. Congress and the U.S. Senate are shaping up.
In short, there aren’t a lot of districts that might lend themselves to competition. Some moves last week in North Dakota and Montana Senate races may give additional focus to Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor’s re-election bid.
Battleground 2014 is shaping up to be a very small place.
With the House sliced and diced into districts that leave most incumbents insulated from any serious reelection challenge — and a host of prized Senate recruits from both parties deciding they’d rather just stay home — control of Congress could be decided next year by the fewest number of states and congressional districts in a decade or more.
The Senate will take a lot less to flip: The handful of states expected to determine control of the chamber features electorates that favor the GOP, as well as a history of electing Republicans to statewide office. To return to the majority, the GOP needs to turn six Democratic seats red.
The GOP’s chances at this point rest on defeating three of four Democratic incumbents in states carried by Mitt Romney: Arkansas’ Mark Pryor, Alaska’s Mark Begich, Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu and North Carolina’s Kay Hagan.
Democratic operatives see the foursome as their firewall. They note that only three Democratic incumbents have lost in the last decade.
Read the full take at this link.
The House is controlled 234-201 by Republicans with one vacancy. In the Senate, Democrats hold a 53-45 margin over the GOP with two independents caucusing with the Democrats.