Notes from the campaign trail: Iowa Caucus winners and losers

Editor’s note: Notes from the Campaign Trail is a compilation of various political insider tidbits and is sponsored by Little Rock-based Capitol Advisors Group.

IOWA CAUCUS WINNER & LOSERS
Time for some spin in the wake of the Iowa Caucus results. It was expected that Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton would be competitive. The final tallies went down to the wire with Clinton apparently eking out the actual percentage vote win (that was subject to shift with a few precincts remaining). The two Democratic candidates will earn a close-to-equal portion of the state’s 44 delegates. Clinton led in several last-minute polls, but with new voters barreling to the caucuses the final outcome was hard to project.

Sanders and Clinton both declared victory, and Sanders is expected to win New Hampshire, the next primary state (Feb. 9). Keep in mind that Sanders started with zero name ID a few months ago and came close to 50%.

On the GOP side, Ted Cruz had been expected to lead in Iowa with the strong base of evangelical supporters and he pulled away before 10 p.m. to win a plurality of votes in the Iowa Caucus. Donald Trump, finished second – despite proclaiming he would win.

But the real story of the night was Marco Rubio’s strong showing. Rubio had been polling in the mid-teens and his campaign had hoped for a high-teen percentage finish. Ending with 23% of the vote and nipping at Trump’s heels for second place, Rubio will get the biggest boost coming out of Iowa, according to many observers. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa Caucus, suspended his campaign after his 1% showing.

One other major observation on the evening: Outsiders Cruz, Trump and Ben Carson – three of the top four GOP finishers – secured more than 60% of the Republican vote. Sanders near 50% also highlights the dissatisfaction with establishment politics and politicians and suggests a major undercurrent against the status quo.

THE ARKANSAS CONNECTION
There are several interesting Arkansas ties to the Iowa Caucuses and its candidates. Beyond Huckabee, his former communications director Alice Stewart had moved to the Ted Cruz campaign in a similar role. Clint Reed, a partner with Little Rock-based Impact Management Group, was the Iowa state director for the Rubio campaign and is certain to have a future role with the Rubio camp. On the Democratic side, Greg Hale and the Markham Group have been directing Hillary Clinton’s events across the Hawkeye State.

HILLARY TO LAUNCH PHONE BANKS
The Hillary for Arkansas campaign will launch its first student phone bank on Tuesday (Feb. 2) with Rep. Fred Love and Rep. Charles Blake, two Pulaski County Democrats, hosting the event. The phone bank will center on Clinton’s positions on college financing and will be held at 1501 N. University Ave. in Little Rock on the 2nd floor conference room from 5-7 p.m.

According to a campaign press release, Clinton’s “New College Compact” would guarantee that students do not need to borrow to pay for tuition, books, and fees to attend a four-year public college in their state. Her plan also provides college graduates with the opportunity to refinance their student loans at current rates. For private Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Clinton’s plan creates a dedicated $25 billion fund to provide support to private nonprofit schools that serve low- and middle-income students.

TRUMP’S LITTLE ROCK VISIT WON’T INCLUDE HUCKABEE
GOP second place finisher Donald Trump is coming to Little Rock’s Barton Coliseum on Wednesday evening for a 5 p.m. rally. Speculation had centered that if Huckabee had a poor showing in Iowa he would be in attendance to endorse Trump. Not so fast. Huckabee spokesman Hogan Gidley tweeted on Monday night, “ATTENTION MEDIA: @GovMikeHuckabee will NOT be in LR for @realDonaldTrump event. He’s heading home to Florida.”

BOOZMAN, ELDRIDGE REPORT Q4 FUNDRAISING NUMBERS
Incumbent GOP U.S. Sen. John Boozman reported raising $652,000 in the fourth quarter of 2015. For the cycle, Boozman said he’s raised nearly $1.6 million. A note to campaign supporters also indicated that internal polling for the Senator shows him with a 50 point lead over his primary challenger, Curtis Coleman.

Boozman’s likely fall major opponent, Democrat Conner Eldridge, reported raising nearly $309,000 in the fourth quarter of last year. Overall, Eldridge says he’s raised $712,000 for the cycle. He says he ended the year with $448,268 cash-on-hand.

CONGRESSMEN FILE Q4 FEC REPORTS
All four of Arkansas’ Congressmen reported their fourth quarter fundraising and cash-on-hand at the end of 2015. The numbers break down as follows:

Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Jonesboro
Raised: $71,438
Cash-on-hand: $422,875

Rep. French Hill, R-Little Rock
Raised: $263,825
Cash-on-hand: $722,970

Rep. Steve Womack, R-Rogers
Raised: $155,327
Cash-on-hand: $1,017,417

Rep. Bruce Westerman, R-Hot Springs
Raised: $122,805
Cash-on-hand: $262,205.82