Tolbert: Saline County Vote On Booze Could Help French Hill

Predicting voter behavior is hardly an exact science despite the best efforts of political pundits. However, one issue that seems to consistently give a boost to getting voters to the polls is the legalization of alcohol sales.

While it remains to be seen if a statewide initiative to legalize alcohol sales will be on the ballot, it appears that voters in Saline County will vote this November whether to stay dry or go wet.  And the turnout boost could help the Republican candidate for Congress, French Hill.

The state has seen several counties make the switch from a dry to a wet county. In the last decade, six counties have voted on the issue with all six voting to go wet by margins varying from 53 percent to 65 percent.

The consistent trend in all six cases was a boost in voter turnout with the issue on the ballot.  Three of these county elections – Clark (2010), Boone (2010), and Marion (2006) – occurred during a non-Presidential election year making for an interesting comparison to the upcoming off-year election.

Although many other factors certainly contributed to turnout – the number of candidates on the ballot, voter enthusiasm, etc. – all three counties saw a sharp increase in the number of voters.

In 2006, Marion County saw an increase of 17% compared to the most recent off-year election in 2002.  In 2010, Clark County saw an 18% increase and Boone County saw an incredible 40% increase compared to 2006.

These patterns indicate that Saline County will likely see a similar trend when voters head to the polls in November, barring a pending court challenge.  A group largely funded by Wal-Mart and Kum & Go was successful in get 25,653 signatures accepted – just 73 signatures over the 38% required threshold.

Why does this matter?  Saline County has become a reliable Republican stronghold in recent years.

Congressman Tim Griffin won Saline County by 70% in 2012 and 72% in 2010.  Whether voters are turning out to vote for being able to drive a few miles closer to buy a six pack or to vote against the proposal for moral or public safety reasons, an increase in the turnout is almost certain to boost the number of voters for Republican French Hill.

This will particularly be true if turnout in Pulaski County does not keep pace.  Pulaski County is the only county Democrats have been able to win in the Second District in the last two election cycles – albeit by narrow margins.

The most recent polls have shown the Second District is the tightest race of all the Congressional races this year.  A Talk Business/Hendrix College poll earlier this month showed Hill with a razor-thin 44 to 43% lead over Democrat Pat Hays.

In a race this close, turnout could be a key factor.