Tolbert: The Gender Gap Is A Problem For Democrats

David Catanese with the U.S. News and World Report takes a different look at the much-hyped gender gap in political races.  While it has been much discussed that Democratic candidates have been buoyed to victory by capitalizing on their advantage with female issues, Catanese points out that the opposite might be true this year.

This is a common refrain about the Republican Party’s deep-rooted problem with women. But it could just as easily be applied to the Democrats and their disconnect with men.

In fact, in several of the headline U.S. Senate contests of the cycle, Democrats’ troubles with males are even more pronounced than the GOP’s deficit with the fairer sex, according to a U.S. News analysis of available public polling data.

The male drift from the Democratic Party, particularly white males, isn’t an entirely new phenomenon. Reagan Democrats were comprised largely of men who felt the party had abandoned them, and not the other way around. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 62 percent of the white male vote. But in a campaign cycle set to see a handful of margin-of-error races that determine U.S. Senate control, it’s an often overlooked and undervalued element of the election.

“If they don’t find a way to reverse the trend, there will be a gender gap and it will favor Republicans,” says Republican pollster Wes Anderson.

Yet it’s unclear if the Democratic Party’s top minds have a coherent strategy to address their own gender chasm. Or if they even care.

The most recent polling data from Talk Business & Politics shows this male gender gap problem is playing out in the two key races in Arkansas – the U.S. Senate and Governor’s race.

While Sen. Mark Pryor is doing well among female voters – winning this group 45 to 40 – his deficit among men is over twice the size where Rep. Tom Cotton is winning males 49 to 37.  Traditionally, female voters compromise a larger group in turnout in elections. In Arkansas, female voters historically have outnumbered males by around 6 to 8 points. But as Catanese notes, counting on this turnout advantage might not be enough to make up for the growing deficit in male voters.

The problem for Mike Ross in the gubernatorial race is different than for Pryor.  While Ross is doing slightly better with men than Pryor – Asa Hutchinson is up 49 to 39, Ross is actually narrowly losing among female voters with 44 preferring Asa to 43 for Ross.  This is despite what — by all appearances — is a strategy by the Ross campaign to go after the female demographic.  He kicked off his campaign announcement by shifting to a more pro-choice position on abortion.  He has also heavily emphasized his support for an expanded state funded pre-K program as a “front and center” piece of his campaign.

Unless Democrats can find a way to close this widening gender gap with male voters, their old model of focusing on female voters might not pay off this year.