Tolbert: Early Voting Up 26% Compared To 2010

Early voting still shows an increase compared to 2010, but lags behind 2012 levels.

In the last midterm election in 2010, almost 177,000 early votes had been cast by Wednesday of the second week – one week out from Election Day.  This year, that number has grown to just over 224,000 – up about 26%. In 2012 – a Presidential election year which historically always has a higher turnout – almost 311,00 had early voted.

We now also have more data to examine the tea leaves as well. Based on trends in the previous two elections, around two-thirds of early ballots have been cast.  However, it remains to be seen if turnout is up overall or if we are seeing a shift in voter behavior to early vote instead of voting on Election Day.  Here are some takeaways…

• Republicans still lead in the number of registered voters – 10,250 Republicans have early voted compared to 9,666 Democrats. Democrats led in the first couple of days, but Republicans overtook the lead and have steadily widened it each day. Again, by far the largest group of voters are registered “optional” with over 204,000 early voters in this category.  (Democrats have claimed many of their new voters are in this category and the GOP lead in the registered voter turnout does not matter).
• Pulaski County remains the largest county seeing an increase, although the growth is slowing. Last week, Pulaski County was up around 54% compared to 2010, but this is now down to about a 46% increase. Still, it is the largest in terms of numbers – from around 27,260 this time in 2010 to more than 40,000 this year for an increase of around 12,800.
• “Republican” counties remain the next four. Benton, Washington, Faulkner, and Saline are up by a combined amount of about 25,500 or around 43%. The growth here is holding fairly steady; last week these four counties were up 42%.
• Two notes on Washington County. First, although this county leans Republican, it is the least leaning of the four counties. Democrats contend they are turning out key pockets of Democrats in the county, particularly around the University of Arkansas. Secondly, Washington County is up a phenomenal 133% – around 11,600 compared to just under 5,000 in 2010, but there is a reason.  In 2010, all early voting took place in the county clerk’s office on the 3rd floor of the courthouse.  Parking and accessibility made early voting inconvenient. This year, Washington County has 7 early voting locations spread out around the county making it much easier to access.
• Uptick in Pope County. It is not clear why, but Pope County (Russellville) seems to be picking up steam. Last year, they were up about 33% compared to 2010 but now they are up almost 52% with around 6,000 early voters compared to around 4,000 last year. Pope has leapfrogged over Jefferson County to take the seventh spot in increased early vote turnout just behind Craighead County.

Although slight movements seem to indicate some increase in Republican areas compared to Democratic areas, overall the trend is about the same as last week.