Cook: Polls Tightening, Early Vote Numbers Up Dramatically

Election Day is just over a week away and new polls show the major races tightening and the early voting numbers are dramatically up over the last mid-term election.

Over the weekend NBC News/Marist Polls released new poll numbers for Arkansas showing the Senate and Governor’s races tightening since their September poll.

Their latest poll showed Tom Cotton with 45% to Mark Pryor’s 43%. In September Cotton’s lead was 5 points.

The most dramatic tightening was in the Governor’s race. Back in September, NBC News/Marist Polls had Asa Hutchinson leading by nine points, now Hutchinson leads by just 3 points, with 47% to Mike Ross’s 43%.

The gender gap became more pronounced in that race as well. In September, Ross was only winning women voters, 43%-42%. Ross now leads women voters 52% to Hutchinson’s 39%.

The good news for the Republican candidates is that the latest poll shows them ahead; however, the races seem to have tightened to where the ground game could make the difference between victory and defeat.

Which brings me to the early vote numbers. To be victorious, Democrats are counting on a high voter turnout and, if the early vote number trend continues, they may get their wish.

Below are early vote numbers sent to me by the Democratic Party, but these numbers do not reflect Saturday’s voting totals.

Location          2014          2010
Statewide     131,454     102,644
Pulaski           22,535        15,467
Jefferson          2,644          1,732
Washington     5,972         2,673

Early voting is up by about 34% over what it was four years ago at this point. That dramatic increase in early voting likely breeds more early voting since it creates a sense of excitement and causes more folks to head to the polls. Like wanting to attend a party that everyone is going to and skipping the party you know will be poorly attended.

Pulaski and Jefferson counties are reliable Democratic counties, while Washington County and other Northwest Arkansas counties have been the focus of major Democratic field efforts.

Strategically, the overall Democratic strategy has been quite simple: Keep the major races close and invest heavily in an effective ground game to overcome a 3-4% deficit on Election Day.

We’ll know in just over a week if the strategy worked or not.