Tolbert: Early Voting Turnout on Pace Between 2010 And 2012

Early voting turnout numbers are beginning to show some information on how this election is shaping up . There is a bit of positive news for both Republicans and Democrats from these numbers; however, for the most part the two parties are pretty even after the first two days of voting.  Here are some takeaways:

• Turnout is higher than the previous mid-term, but below the last Presidential year election – According to the Secretary of State, the first two days show 51,144 early voted.  This is below 2012 when 73,066 voted in the first two days but ahead of the 2010 mid-term where 43,109 turnout the first two days.
• Registered Democrats slightly outnumber Republicans – Its close but 2,302 registered Democrats have voted compared to 2,292 Republicans. As always, the vast majority – 46,537 – are registered with party preference optional and 13 were third parties.
• Pulaski County has the largest increase in turnout compared to 2010 – Turnout here is key to the Democrats strategy and you can see the bump in numbers with 9,745 turning out in the first two days compared to 6,236 in 2010.  There was also a small bump in Jefferson County with 1,155 voters compared to 727 in 2010.
• The next top four counties increasing turnout all lean Republican – 4 of the 5 top counties in turnout increase – Benton, Faulkner, Washington, and Saline – all tend to lean Republican to varying degrees.  These four counties saw a combined 13,249 early voters this year compared to 7,966 by the same time in 2010.  This more than offsets the Pulaski County increase.
• Battleground Craighead County – The fight to win Jonesboro, Craighead County, and northeast Arkansas has been key to both parties and their respective campaigns. Republicans have been steadily making in-roads in this area where Democrats at one time dominated.  Craighead saw a significant increase in early votes with 2,108 turning out compared to 1,517 in 2010.
• Fall off in Boone County – The only county that really saw much of a decrease was Boone County which dropped from 2,025 in 2010 to 900 this year.  The explanation could be that in 2010 the election to change the county from wet to dry was on the ballot.

We will try to keep tabs on these trends periodically throughout early voting, but overall this appears to be somewhat good news for Republicans. Democrats are hoping for a massive increase in turnout to overcome their disadvantage in the polling numbers.  So far it appears both are running relatively even in the early days of early turnout.