Cook: Governor, Senate Race Dead Heat; Burkhalter Leads In Non-Partisan Poll

Lately it seems as if every other day there is a new poll to discuss, but recently the public polls we”ve seen have been conducted by partisan-leaning groups.

It doesn”t necessarily mean those partisan polls are right or wrong, it”s just that they should all be viewed with friendly skepticism.

However on Wednesday, USA Today/Suffolk University released a poll on various Arkansas statewide races making it the first non-partisan poll we”ve seen in some time.

The poll showed Mark Pryor and John Burkhalter leading their Republican opponents and the Governor”s race in a “statistical dead heat” with Asa Hutchinson leading by just two points.

Here are the results for the major races:

U.S. Senate
Mark Pryor – 45%
Tom Cotton – 43%
Undecided – 7%

Governor
Asa Hutchinson – 43%
Mike Ross – 41%
Undecided – 11%

Lt.Governor
John Burkhalter – 42%
Tim Griffin – 35%
Undecided – 18%

Attorney General
Nate Steel – 36%
Leslie Rutledge – 36%
Undecided – 22%

For once, let”s start off with the down-ballot races when discussing a new poll.

Last week, I wrote a story about John Burkhalter”s ad strategy of spending money early and wondered if it would work. According to this new, non-partisan poll, it appears casino Burkhalter”s strategy paid off since he”s leading by seven points. Burkhalter has run positive television ads since mid-July and Tim Griffin, his GOP challenger, just started airing television ads on Wednesday.

The Attorney General”s race is currently tied. As I wrote last week, Republican Leslie Rutledge doesn”t have the campaign cash to be competitive and negative press she”s received over her previous employment is hurting her candidacy. Nate Steel is in a good position to win this race.

Now to the top of the ballot races.

According to the pollster, the Governor”s race is in a “statistical dead heat.” Hutchinson is leading Ross, but just barely.

It”s the opposite for the U.S. Senate race, Pryor leads Cotton, but just barely.

For the Governor and Senate races, it”s been a battle of inches and no one has broken away from their opponent.

From a big picture perspective, I can”t recall a time in Arkansas politics when both a Senate race and Governor”s race were as tight as a tick before this year. At this point four years ago, it was clear who would win the Governor and Senate races. Now, no one can say with any certainty who will win the top two races. It makes for a very exciting election.

Every election cycle it”s almost cliche to discuss the importance of turnout and how critical it is for a candidate to get their supporters to the polls.

If these races stay this close, the candidates” turnout operations will take on an even greater importance and it could mean the difference between winning and losing.