Arkansas sees more than 36% boost in first week of early voting

Early voting numbers in Arkansas’ mid-term elections through the end of Saturday are 36.54% higher than the midterm election cycle in 2010 and political strategists on both sides of the political spectrum say the higher totals are good news for their campaigns.

According to figures compiled by the Democratic Party of Arkansas, 147,620 people had voted early last week, the first full week registered voters could cast their ballots. That is more than 36% more than the 108,114 people who had early voted the same week in 2010.

Jason Cline, a consultant with Genlink Strategies who represents a number of Republican candidates across the state including Secretary of State Mark Martin, said early voting numbers in certain counties bode very well for Republican candidates across the state.

In Benton County, a traditionally Republican stronghold, 11,235 people had cast votes by the closing of the polls Saturday afternoon. That is a 70.77% increase from 2010's total of 6,579.

"If you look at the growth in Benton, Faulkner and Saline Counties, there's been more growth since the last mid-term than we saw even in Pulaski County. Washington County will be another one Democrats could look to (as a sign of strength), but I don't think they're seeing the numbers grow because of the (number of) University of Arkansas students (who may be registered to vote in their hometowns). The numbers benefit Republicans."

In Washington County, 6,504 individuals had voted early as of Saturday afternoon, a 131.46% increase. In Crawford County, 1,777 individuals had voted early last week, an increase of 18.15% over 2010. Sebastian County last week saw 4,918 early voters last week, representing growth of 19.95% from the same period in 2010.

Robert McLarty, coordinated campaign director for Arkansas Victory 2014 – the coordinated campaign of the Democratic Party of Arkansas – said the state figures and county figures in the state's most heavily populated counties could bode well for Democratic candidates across the state. Asked why, he said it all comes down to having the right data on likely Democratic voters.

"We spent a lot of time and resources on voting analytics, scoring that voter base on the support score," he said. "We're targeting our voters in a very high tech way that we've not seen in years past (in Arkansas). We're looking at very good information and we're seeing a lot of our targets showing up."

He said in Benton County, as well as some central Arkansas counties, the party worked on get out the vote efforts for months to increase the turnout in favor of Democratic candidates. McLarty said three election cycles of effort have shown improvements that should translate into votes for Democrats, noting that 37% of voters had cast their ballots early in 2010 along with 3% of voters who cast ballots by absentee vote. The total jumped to 47% in 2012, he said.

"So I think you're looking at the low 40s for early voting. The more we push early, the less we look out to push for (our voters to show up) for election day. Every day, it's the same strategy. Calling through, knocking on target's doors and getting them to vote."

But Democrats have competition in their efforts with private groups and political action committees.

Laurie Lee, executive director of the conservative Women Speak Out PAC and managing partner of Trace Strategies, said her group had knocked on 115,000 doors in 90 days in their get out the vote efforts as they target pro-life women voters. She added that just last Saturday, the group had knocked on 3,600 doors in their efforts and have plans to hit another 10,000 doors in the next seven days.

When she looks at the early voting numbers, she said it tells her that people are hearing the message her group and others are communicating and are responding.

"I think people are just more in tune with politics. They're cognizant to what it costs when they don't vote. People want to make sure their voice is heard."

Cline said even though early voting numbers are significantly higher in some sections of the state, it remains to be seen whether that will translate into the positive numbers he, Lee and McLarty think will benefit their respective candidates and organizations.

"The great question is, is this a trend that will continue through election day or are more folks just doing early voting? Is it just more convenient since there are no lines? … My gut is telling me people are just opting for early voting versus election day. And if you look at campaigns, both sides are pushing for that. It is an easier way to put votes in the bank before election day so there's not such a scramble to (get supporters to the polls on Nov. 4)."