Analysts: J.B. Hunt Q4 revenue to fall, earnings to rise

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., a Lowell-based transportation services provider, is expected to post earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and for the year. Revenue is projected to decrease in the period and for the year, as the freight recession approaches four years.

After the markets close Jan. 15, J.B. Hunt is expected to report earnings increased to $1.80 per share in the fourth quarter from $1.53 per share in the same period in 2024, based on a consensus of 21 analysts. Revenue is projected to fall by 1.49% to $3.1 billion from $3.14 billion.

For 2025, earnings are expected to increase to $6 per share from $5.56 per share in 2024. Revenue is expected to fall by 0.69% to $12 billion from $12.08 billion.

In an earnings preview, analysts Brady Lierz and Reed Seay and senior associate Joe Enderlin, all of Little Rock-based Stephens Inc., said that peak season “played out relatively in line with expectations.” Still, J.B. Hunt’s intermodal volumes are expected to decline 3% year over year amid more difficult comparisons. Intermodal pricing has “remained relatively steady” ranging from “flat to slightly positive.”

For 2026, the analysts said volume growth will be challenging in the first half of the year “due to the strong import pull forward in (the first half of 2025.) However, if recent trends indicating a tightening truckload market continue, we would expect a return to growth and more robust intermodal pricing in the (second half of 2026.)”

Stephens analysts maintained an overweight (buy) rating on J.B. Hunt shares and raised their 12-month target price to $235 from $180.

Shares of J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) were trading Thursday afternoon at $206.06, up $2.24 or 1.10%. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has ranged between $122.79 and $207.83. The stock reached the 52-week high of $207.83 on Wednesday before closing at $203.54.

Following is a preview by business segment.
Intermodal
At investor conferences in the fourth quarter, J.B. Hunt executives said a peak season happened as expected in the period. Stephens analysts expect continued strength in J.B. Hunt’s eastern network, where the company continues to win business and convert truckload freight into intermodal. The company’s transcontinental network is expected to be softer amid more difficult year-over-year comparisons and the effects of tariffs, leading to freight being shipped earlier in the year than usual.

For 2026, analysts expect challenging year-over-year comparisons to contribute to declines in intermodal volumes in the first half of the year. However, if the truckload market continues to tighten as capacity declines, this could create more opportunities to convert truckload freight to intermodal. J.B. Hunt should be able to take advantage of this with its “strong service levels and excess capacity,” analysts said. Improvements in the truckload market are expected to provide tailwinds to the intermodal market. Intermodal pricing is expected to rise by low single digits in 2026 compared to 2025.

Dedicated
The analysts expect net fleet growth to continue in the fourth quarter despite the challenging dedicated market. The segment’s margins are expected to decline by 0.6 percentage points in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. “We again highlight that 3Q margins were within the company’s long-term targeted range, despite a nearly four-year freight recession,” analysts said. In 2026, J.B. Hunt will work toward its target of between 800 and 1,000 trucks of annual net fleet growth.

Brokerage
The segment is expected to report an operating loss as truckload spot rates rose in the fourth quarter, analysts said. An improving truckload market could put pressure on gross margins in 2026, but analysts believe J.B Hunt’s focus on controlling costs, profitable customers and “stickier business will drive a return to profitability in (brokerage) in 2026.”

Final Mile
The market remains challenging with weak demand for big and bulky products, and this is unlikely to change soon, unless the U.S. housing market strengthens. “(J.B. Hunt’s) cost-to-serve initiative and new business wins could support operating income growth” in 2026, analysts said.

Truck
The company’s focus on the cost-to-serve initiative is also expected to benefit this segment, analysts said. If the truckload market improves, this could also help the segment.