Walmart expected to report Q3 earnings gain of 3.4%, revenue up 4.5%

Walmart continues to be a favorite in the big box retail segment among stock market analysts who expect the retail giant will report higher earnings and revenue on Thursday (Nov. 20) for its fiscal third-quarter ending Oct. 1.

Before the market opens Thursday, Walmart is expected to report net earnings per share of 60 cents, up from 58 cents a year ago. Net income is pegged at $4.786 billion, up slightly year over year.

Analysts expect revenue to total $177.14 billion, up 4.5% from a year ago. The revenue boost is expected to come from U.S. comparable sales growth of 4%, and a Sam’s Club comp-sales uptick of 5% behind positive traffic in stores and online. Walmart’s e-commerce business is expected to grow by 10% year over year, thanks to the expanded marketplace segment.

The bullish sentiment around Walmart stems from the retailer’s growing market share across all income demographics facing sticky inflation and tariff concerns.

Corey Tarlowe, analyst with Jefferies, expects Walmart will beat expectations this quarter at 61 cents per share despite concerns about broader economic health. He also expects U.S. comp sales to improve 4.4%, versus 3.9% reported a year ago.

Tarlowe pegs Walmart’s full-year guidance between $2.52 and $2.62 per share, with sales growing between 3.75% and 4.75% from the prior year. He holds a “buy” rating on Walmart stock, and his 12-month target price is $120, with an implied upside growth of 16%.

While Walmart’s sales are growing globally, the rate of growth has slowed from a year ago. The U.S. sales division is expected to post revenue of $119.52 billion, up 4.1% from a year ago. Last year, Walmart U.S. grew sales by 7% in the quarter. Walmart’s international division is expected to see sales growth of 5.9% to $32.07 billion in the quarter, below the 8% growth the international segment posted a year ago.

Joe Feldman, assistant director of research at Telsey Advisory Group, said Walmart is reaping the benefits from past investments in higher wages, supply chain moderation, and artificial intelligence that have transformed the company over the past decade. He said Walmart’s modern systems allow it to operate more efficiently, target customers more effectively, and bring other forms of revenue into the mix.

“They are growing advertising revenue and their marketplace, which are revenue boosters,” Feldman said. “We think that they’re doing a really good job and have an opportunity to perform well. I think we will hear that some customers are challenged by the economy, and the paycheck cycle is more pronounced for some households. But at the other end, Walmart is capturing that more affluent consumer at the same time. So they’re winning on all fronts.”

He said Walmart will be able to deliver to 95% of the U.S. population in under three hours by the end of the year, which is the definition of convenience that Amazon used to own by itself.

Gerald Storch, of Storch Advisors and former vice chairman at Target as well as former CEO of Hudson Bay, said Walmart is in a class by itself. His picks for holiday winners are Walmart, Costco, TJX and Amazon.

“We are all betting on Walmart,” he said. “They have been doing great for a long time and remain a stellar performer, capturing huge chunks of market share quarter after quarter.”

Analysts are likely hoping for an update on consumer health and about how the retailer plans to backfill Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner’s position when he takes over for the retiring Doug McMillon on Jan. 31, 2026.