Net income could drop more than 4% in Tyson Foods’ fourth quarter

Tyson Foods is expected to post earnings per share of 88 cents for its fiscal fourth-quarter on Nov. 10, before the market opens. That would equal net income of roughly $315 million, down about 4.3% compared with the same period in 2024.

Revenue for the Springdale-based company is forecast at $13.91 billion for the quarter, up 2.5% year over year.

For the full-year results, earnings per share are expected to total $3.83, up 24.6% over the 2024 results. Net income is forecast at $1.375 billion, up from $1.103 billion reported a year ago. Revenue is expected to surpass $55.078 billion, up 3.2% from a year ago.

The meat giant’s chicken segment faces excess supplies across the industry relative to demand. Pooran Sharma, an analyst with Stephens Inc., pegs quarterly earnings at 89 cents per share, slightly ahead of consensus, but lower than the 95-cent estimate it had earlier in the quarter. (Stephens conducts investment banking activities with Tyson Foods on occasion and is compensated accordingly.)

Analysts expect Tyson chicken sales will total $4.3 billion in the quarter, up 1.1% from the prior year. Operating income for the segment is pegged at $350.3 million for the quarter, down from $356 million reported a year ago.

Tyson’s beef segment has struggled with higher operating costs for the entire year amid record-low herd numbers that have pushed beef prices up more than 22% this year. Tyson is expected to report beef segment losses of $118 million in the quarter, which is more than the $71 million loss reported a year ago. For the full year, Tyson is expected to report beef losses in excess of $450 million, which is on top of the $291 million loss reported in 2024.

“We have seen signs of heifer retention starting to take place with the last few months of slaughter data,” Sharma wrote in a report. “The mix of heifers on slaughter relative to the overall slaughter mix peaked around 34.3% in March 2025; however, this figure has trended down since then, with the most recent month (July) heifer slaughter mix coming in at 29.8%. If this proves to be the start of herd rebuilding, we would anticipate supplies to recover in late 2028, reflecting roughly one year for heifer development, nine months for gestation, and 18–24 months for calf development.”

Tyson’s beef segment sales are expected to total $5.629 billion in the quarter, up 7% from a year ago. For the year, sales are expected to top $21.856 billion, up 6.7% from a year ago.

The prepared foods segment sales are pegged at $612.05 million in the quarter, up 0.5% year over year. For 2025, segment sales are forecast at $9.942 million, up 0.9%. The operating income is expected to total $207.2 million for the quarter, up 1.1%. For the year, operating income is pegged at $931.2 million, up 2.9% from the prior year.

Tyson’s pork segment operating income is expected to total $32.3 million in the quarter, up 69% from a year ago. Pork sales are expected to total $1.52 billion in the quarter, up 6% year over year. Annually, the segment posted sales of $6.083 billion, up 3% from last year. Sales were helped by higher overall prices from a year ago, according to analysts.

Tyson’s smaller international unit is expected to report sales of $612.05 million in the quarter, up 1.5%. For the year, sales are pegged at $2.294 billion, down 2.5% from the prior year. The segment is expected to post an operating income of $29.4 million in the quarter, up 3.6%. For the year, operating income is expected to top $141.4 million, up 188% from a year ago.

Shares of Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) have traded lower in the past few months, closing at $51.70 on Thursday, down 1.39%. Over the past 52 weeks, the shares have traded between $50.56 and $65.95. The share price is down 9.45% year to date and 12.09% lower than a year ago.