Trump and Clinton paths to White House, Arkansas ballot issues discussed at Fort Smith chamber event

Hillary Clinton has the easiest path to 270 electoral votes, but Donald Trump is within viable reach, according to Talk Business & Politics CEO Roby Brock and Talk Business & Politics/Northwest Business Journal Executive Editor Michael Tilley.

The two presented at the Fort Smith Regional Chamber of Commerce First Friday Breakfast on Nov. 4, laying out the likeliest scenarios for Clinton and Trump presidencies and talking shop about other issues Arkansas voters will face on Tuesday, Nov. 8.

Brock and Tilley adopted a Q&A-style format with Tilley asking questions and Brock answering. Starting with the Presidential election, Brock said that “if you give Hillary Clinton all the traditionally blue and trending blue states,” her total electoral votes would be 269, just one shy of the 270 needed to secure the White House.

From there, she would need to win only one of the 14 “tossup” states — Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Maine, Arizona, or Utah.

Furthermore, Brock advised watching the North Carolina results, “which should come in early due to the time zone.”

“It’s a state where Mrs. Clinton is competitive,” though numbers currently favor the GOP nominee. “If she wins that, I’m not going to say it’s ‘game over,’ but it would be a blow to the Trump campaign.”

For Trump, the path is more difficult but not impossible. Brock characterized it as a “Chicago Cubs down three games to one in the World Series” scenario. If traditionally red and trending red states break in his favor, he will have 206 electoral votes. He would then have to secure the tossup states to get to 269.

His last challenge would be to pull over one traditionally/trending blue state into his column. Helping those odds somewhat, Maine will divvy up electoral votes and has a key congressional district that is trending conservative. Winning that one vote — even while losing the state — would give Trump the White House.

Also, trending blue Pennsylvania does not have early voting, and Clinton holds only a three-point lead, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average with the race tightening in recent days, Brock noted. Trump is also competitive in Colorado, another blue state.

One state where a Trump victory is not in doubt, Brock stated, is Arkansas. According to Talk Business & Politics polling, the Republican leads 56% to 32.5% for Clinton and 3.5% for libertarian Gary Johnson.

The numbers follow a trend which began in 2000 when George W. Bush secured 51% of the vote from Arkansans. “That support has grown ever since,” Brock observed, adding that he expects the party to pick up “one or two more seats” in the legislature on Tuesday and that Sen. John Boozman should “safely” defeat Democrat Connor Eldridge, whom he leads by more than 20% in Talk Business & Politics polling.

Boozman, Brock said, was “pretty much locked down” for the Senate seat, adding that he “serves his constituents well, and hasn’t rocked the boat in the same manner as Blanche Lincoln did when she cast the deciding vote for the Affordable Care Act.” Boozman defeated Lincoln 58% to 37% in 2010 after he made her ACA vote the cornerstone of his campaign.

Before moving on from the national election, Brock and Tilley observed something called “the Bradley Effect” that attests Trump’s support may be higher than the polls are indicating because “people don’t want to admit they’re voting for Donald Trump,” Tilley said, asking about the viability of such a theory.

Brock said “there could be some of that,” but “there has been so much polling, there is just no way you’re escaping capturing most of that” in the data so far, adding that if it’s there, it’s likely in established states because going against the consensus might be seen as taboo.

“In swing states, it’s not taboo to support either one of the candidates because they are so competitive,” he added.

STATE ISSUES
Until recently Arkansas voters were facing two medical marijuana initiatives. One has since been tossed from the ballot along with another initiative that would have allowed voters to consider legalizing casinos.

The one remaining medical marijuana initiative is something Brock expects to pass considering the momentum from 2012’s initiative which came within three percentage points.

Brock said “demographics are catching up,” with voters over 65 opposed and voters 35 or younger supportive. He also felt voters weren’t being completely honest about their feelings on the issue when polled. To demonstrate, Brock cited a post-election poll Talk Business & Politics did in 2012 that showed the medical marijuana initiative failing by nine points — matching pre-election polling — yet it only missed the mark by 2.5%.

“Voters were not being as honest about the issue in polling as they were at the ballot box,” he said.

Should medical marijuana pass on Tuesday, it will “create a new industry in Arkansas,” Brock noted, adding that it would then consume much of the legislative activity for 2017.

Brock expects Issue No. 3, “Jobs for Arkansas,” to pass in spite of having “a lot of undecideds” because the positivity of the language — “job creation, growth, and economic development” — would likely put it over the top.

Of the support it does have, Issue No. 3 has bipartisan backing and would remove limitations on the amount of general obligation bonds the state may issue to pay for economic development projects. Amendment 82 states bonds cannot exceed 5% of state general revenues.

It would also allow a county, city, town or other municipal corporation to obtain or provide money for other entities to support economic development projects or services; clarify the authority of counties and municipalities to issue bonds for economic development projects instead of industrial development purposes (currently authorized by the state’s Constitution, though not defined); allow state legislators to authorize the use of other taxes (beyond special taxes) to pay off municipal and county bond debt; remove the requirement that municipal and county bonds may be sold only at public sale; and allow cities, towns, school districts and counties to form compacts for economic development projects.