Tonnage falls but truck freight improvement expected, ATA economist says

Truck tonnage declined 0.9% in October compared to the same month last year, but a trucking economist sees signs of a gradual increase in truck freight, according to a news release.

Tonnage is tracked by trade organization American Trucking Associations through its For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index. In October the index was 131.6, down from 131.9 in September. The all-time high was 144 in February.

Compared to September, the index fell 0.3% in October. It declined 6.3% in September, from the previous month.

The index has had two consecutive months of a year-over-year decline. In September, the index fell 1.3% compared to the same month in 2015. So far this year, the index has risen 2.5%, compared to the same period last year.

“While seasonally adjusted tonnage fell, meaning the not seasonally adjust gain wasn’t as large as expected, the bottom of the current tonnage cycle should be near,” ATA chief economist Bob Costello said in the release. “There are some recent trends that suggest truck freight should improve, albeit gradually, soon.”

“Retail sales, housing starts and even factory output all improved in October, which is a good sign,” Costello added. “Most importantly, there has been considerable progress made in clearing out excess stocks throughout the supply chain. While that correction is still ongoing, there has been enough improvement that the negative drag on tonnage shouldn’t be as large going forward.”