Northwest Arkansas Political Animals told that Clinton likely to win, Cotton will run in 2020

Hillary Clinton can be elected president by winning at least one of four swing states and Donald Trump will likely continue to lead his faction of the Republican Party after he loses the presidential election, according to predictions offered Friday by Roby Brock, CEO of Talk Business & Politics.

Brock spoke to a luncheon meeting of the Northwest Arkansas Political Animals Club in Fayetteville, where he also announced a couple of business-related items:

• The weekly televised version of Talk Business & Politics that Brock hosts will enter the Northwest Arkansas market in January at 10:30 a.m. Sundays on KFSM-TV, Channel 5, immediately following the CBS program Face the Nation.

The half-hour program will contain local content as well as discussion of statewide issues from Little Rock. Audio segments of the program are currently broadcast on Ozarks at Large at noon weekdays on KUAF 91.3 FM in Fayetteville. The full program already airs on KATV in Little Rock and KAIT in Jonesboro.

• Talk Business & Politics will release a new statewide poll Sunday and Monday in association with Hendrix College. Brock said it’s been three weeks since the last version of the poll was released, which showed Trump ahead of Clinton 55-34% in Arkansas.

“I’m curious to see if these numbers have changed,” Brock said. “It’s been an interesting three weeks.”

Brock noted that in the averages of state polls compiled by the Real Clear Politics website, Clinton is ahead in several swing states and that Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Colorado matter the most. The race is virtually tied in Ohio with Clinton leading in the other three.

“Trump needs to win all four to win the Electoral College,” Brock said, and a Clinton victory any of them will almost assure her the White House. “Hillary Clinton is well on her way to being president of the United States, barring something monumental.”

Clinton has a lead of 42-40.5 in usually Republican Arizona, which Brock said was due to a large voter registration push among Latinos. which is driving Clinton’s numbers there.

“Arizona is going through a major shift,” he said.

CONGRESSIONAL CONTROL, TRUMP FUTURE
Control of Congress is shaping up as a factor in the election and Brock predicted the U.S. Senate would wind up with either a 50-50 tie or a 51-49 edge, although he wasn’t predicting which party would prevail with the slight margin. A 50-50 tie with a Clinton presidency would give control of the chamber to the Democrats because Tim Kaine as vice president would be able to vote to break a tie. Also, Brock noted that Kaine’s Senate seat from Virginia would remain in Democratic hands after Gov. Terry McAuliffe, D-Va., would appoint a replacement.

The House still looks safe for Republicans, who have a 30-seat margin, Brock said, which would leave Paul Ryan in place as speaker.

A Trump loss in November won’t remove him from the national spotlight. Brock predicted his faction of the Republican Party would continue to look to him for leadership. After release of the Access Hollywood video that revealed Trump engaged in lewd conversation about women, he effectively abandoned hope of winning the election and threw in his lot with the “alt right,” Brock said, referring to a more aggressive branch of conservatives in the GOP. Brock said he believes Trump is building a post-election movement he seeks to lead.

“I think he stays heavily involved.”

Clinton’s presidency will probably begin with her reaching out to Republican Congressional leadership. Brock said she would likely propose that the leaders of the two parties select three or four key issues on which they would agree to work together and pass legislation. Clinton will remind the Republican leadership “how close they came to falling off the cliff.”

Brock wondered “who’s the Democrats’ farm club?” for future years. He doubted U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders would run for president again, adding that neither Kaine nor other prominent Democrats have “cult followings” such as Sanders had for his candidacy.

Brock predicted that Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2020 with possible contenders Ryan, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Cotton’s presidential candidacy “has been preordained since he got elected to the Senate” in 2014. Brock noted that Cotton’s Senate office has a national press secretary and a state press secretary. At this year’s Republican National Convention, Cotton spoke to delegations from the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In recent weeks, Cotton has spent time in Iowa campaigning for local Republican candidates.

ARKANSAS ISSUES
In Arkansas, the poll numbers from three weeks ago showed Republican Sen. John Boozman leading Democratic challenger Conner Eldridge 55-29%, putting Boozman on the way to what Brock called “a cruise control victory” for re-election in November.

The two issues on the state ballot that would legalize use of marijuana for medical purposes registered significantly different numbers in the last polling, which Brock said was an indication that “voters are paying a lot of attention.” Issue 6, the constitutional amendment known as The Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment of 2016, showed poll numbers of 49% in favor and 43% against.

But Issue 7, known as the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act, would be a state statute. It polled 36% in favor and 53% against. Issue 7 includes a provision to allow people to grow their own cannabis plants under certain conditions, a provision that Issue 6 does not have. Brock said Issue 7’s “grow-you-own” hardship certificate provision was probably hurting its numbers.