For the first time this millennium, major stock indices hit all-time highs on same day
“They say 2000, zero, zero, party over,
Oops, out of time
So tonight, I’m gonna party like it’s 1999″
Prince – “1999”
Something happened on Wall Street Thursday (Aug. 11) that hasn’t happened since Dec. 31, 1999 — all three major indices closed at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 closed at 2,185.79; the Nasdaq finished at 5,228.40; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average landed at 18,613.52.
One of the main reasons the financial markets were red-hot at the end of the millennium was due to the dot-com bubble, which hadn’t yet burst.
Analysts see a fundamentally different set of reasons driving the current stock index highs.
“I think there are two main drivers here. One of them is oil,” Mariann Montagne, senior investment analyst at Gradient Investments, told CNBC. “The other part is this retail rally.”
Indeed, consumer spending has been propping up the economy and has fueled the latest stock surge.
“The consumer in the second quarter was just off the charts. You can’t expect it to be as robust in the second half of the year,” said John Canally, economist and market strategist at LPL Financial, in a different CNBC interview. “The consumer is in good shape.”
Canally said consumer spending grew at about 3% in the first half of the year, while GDP growth averaged 1%. He expects consumer spending to slow down to 2.5% in the second half of 2016.
This week, several retailers reported second quarter earnings that have lifted the markets. Macy’s beat analysts’ estimates, but its same-store sales were down and the retail giant said it would close 100 underperforming stores. Other retail competitors such as Nordstrom and Kohl’s had better-than-expected quarters. Little Rock-based Dillard’s was an exception with a report of lower profits.
Rising employment and falling unemployment is a contributor to the consumer spending spree. In the last 12 months, the jobless rate has fallen from 5.3% to 4.9% in July. The number of working Americans has grown by a net 2.65 million during the past year.
On Friday, a government report could also propel stocks higher, or it could result in a downer. However, most analysts estimate that the Commerce Department’s Friday report on U.S. retail sales will show that July resulted in a fourth straight month of improvement. Retail sales likely increased by 0.4% last month, after a 0.6% gain in June, analysts predict.
Two weeks ago, the National Retail Federation upped its guidance on retail sales claiming they would grow 3.6% over last year’s figures versus a previous estimate of 3.1% year-over-year growth.