Trump, Sanders win big in New Hampshire, Kasich surprises with strong second place

It was a night for the outsiders Tuesday as Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders won their party’s primary in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is the nation’s first primary and voters there take pride in that designation. Early reports showed that as many as 500,000 people voted in the primaries Tuesday, setting a possible record.

With about 40% of the vote reported Tuesday, Trump, who visited Little Rock Feb. 3, had a 34 to 16% lead over Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio. Kasich was a surprise in second place and had staked his campaign’s future in New Hampshire, most experts have said.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who led both Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., in a poll of Arkansas likely voters released Sunday by Talk Business & Politics, was in third place tied with former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-FL with 12%.

Rubio had 11%, followed by Gov. Chris Christie, R-NJ with 8% while Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson rounded out the pack with 4 and 2% respectively.

In his victory speech, Trump thanked his parents, Mary and Fred, and said he wants to continue pressing the theme of his campaign.

“We are going to make America great again,” Trump told supporters.

In the Democratic primary, Sanders, who identifies himself as a Democratic socialist, had a 59-39% lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with 39% of the vote reporting. In his remarks Tuesday night, Sanders said he supports “single payer” healthcare and spoke about his opposition to the war in Iraq in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

“We should not be the world’s policeman,” Sanders said, noting he supports using the military and defense efficiently.

Clinton said she called Sanders Tuesday night and conceded New Hampshire. In a speech Tuesday night, Clinton said the state has meant a lot to her family.

“I want to say I still love New Hampshire and I always will,” Clinton said at a campaign rally. “Now we take this campaign to the entire country. We are going to fight for every vote in every state.”

For the Republicans, the next step is South Carolina on Feb. 20, followed by Nevada on Feb. 23. The Democrats have Nevada on Feb. 20, followed by South Carolina on Feb. 27.

Voters in Arkansas head to the polls March 1, with early voting going from Feb. 16 through 29 around the state.

New Hampshire Analysis 2016

Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College, offered this analysis of the New Hampshire results:

When the winners of the New Hampshire primary were confirmed at the moment polls closed, it was equal parts expected and stunning. The victories of both Bernie Sanders and Donald J. Trump were, of course, totally anticipated as a result of weeks of polling showing them with double-digit leads. But, the victories by men with limited past relationships with the parties they seek to represent in the general election are truly stunning in their rejection of both parties’ establishments and their indication that the polarization of American politics that has grown in recent decades has reached a new level.

Trump’s victory was solid, showing little of the melt from pre-election surveys as shown in Iowa eight days ago. Trump won with almost all political and demographic subgroups of the New Hampshire electorate. Senator Ted Cruz, coming off of an Iowa victory, held his own in one of the most secular states in the country; South Carolina, with a more evangelical electorate, will be much more favorable turf. (Cruz will also be helped by the poor showing of Ben Carson, whose days in the field seem short.)

While Trump and Cruz represent the populist and evangelical wings of the GOP, the establishment wing remains alive as a result of New Hampshire. The problem for establishment Republicans is that there ended up being too many tickets out of New Hampshire. Ohio Governor John Kasich got the first ticket and will have a boost in fundraising; the key question is whether he can survive long enough to get to a more favorable electoral calendar in mid-March when Midwestern states engage. (Kasich may have ensured his place on the national ticket with his win, no matter what.) The other two tickets go to two Floridians — former Governor Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

The establishment Governor who failed to get into double digits was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who took one for the team in eviscerating Rubio in Saturday’s debate, perhaps damaging Rubio’s career for years ahead. Of the three more establishment candidates, Bush, with the support of Sen. Lindsey Graham, seems best positioned to fight the fight in South Carolina.

Although hoping to close the loss to single digits, Hillary Clinton was clearly ready for the loss. Her campaign released a three-page memo explaining the campaign’s path to victory after New Hampshire emphasizing her support among persons of color in Nevada, South Carolina, and in the March 1 SEC Primary. But, the loss shows fundamental structural problems in the campaign with voters under 45 (Sanders won that group 3-to-1) and with voters disengaged with partisan politics (Sanders won independents 72%-25%).

In their speeches, both Sanders and Clinton hit similar themes. We see Clinton morphing towards Sanders in her attacks on Wall Street and the establishment and we see Sanders morphing towards Clinton in his support of the rights of women, persons of color, and LGBT individuals. Perhaps the most fascinating message in the two speeches was the call for party unity at the end of the Democratic campaign from Sanders. It suggests that, no matter the intensity of the campaign on the Democratic side, that Democrats may have a bit easier time unifying for the fall campaign.

The short story is that both nomination campaigns will clearly last well into March and probably well beyond. It’s going to be a fun ride.

What are the implications for the March 1 Arkansas primary? The Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College survey released in recent days suggest that Clinton remains solid in a state where she spent much of her adult life and where she won easily in 2008. Because so many states are up for grabs on March 1, it makes sense that Sanders will take his campaign to states that seem better targets for him to threaten Clinton and relatively little action may take place here.

On the GOP side, however, Arkansas is likely to see a good deal of action. Last week’s poll showed Trump and Cruz to be in strong shape in Arkansas and, with both well-positioned for strong showings in South Carolina, they are also strong contenders in Arkansas. That survey also showed Florida Senator Marco Rubio in strong shape following his solid third place showing in Iowa. The Rubio collapse in New Hampshire, however, raises questions about whether his showing in last week’s Arkansas poll was a bit of political soufflé.

All eyes will be on Governor Asa Hutchinson and former Governor Mike Huckabee — both extremely popular among Arkansas’s GOP primary voters — to see whom they will endorse in advance of March 1.