Arkansas’ annual average jobless rate below 6%, lowest since 2008

Arkansas’ average jobless rate in 2015 was 5.2%, below the 6.1% in 2014 and well below the 7.4% average in 2013. It is the first time the annual average dropped below 6% since 2008.

Also, broad revisions of labor market data shows that Arkansas’ jobless rate fell below 5% sooner than previously noted, and December’s jobless rate was 4.7% instead of the previously reported 4.8%.

The new data shows that Arkansas’ jobless rate fell below 5% with a 4.9% rate in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It was the first time the rate had been below 5% since June 2001. Initial BLS reporting had the rate falling below 5% in November with a 4.8% rate. The December rate of 4.7% also marks eight consecutive months of jobless rate declines in Arkansas.

Changes in the labor market data reflects revised population controls, new model estimates, and new seasonal adjustments, the BLS explained.

Following are the past eight years of Arkansas’ annual average jobless rate.
2015: 5.2%
2014: 6.1%
2013: 7.4%
2012: 7.5%
2011: 7.9%
2010: 7.9%
2009: 7.3%
2008: 5.2%

Annual average unemployment rates in 2015 decreased in 47 states, increased in two states, and were unchanged in one state, according to the BLS revisions. North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate, 2.7% in 2015, followed by Nebraska and South Dakota, 3% and 3.1%, respectively. Nevada and West Virginia had the highest jobless rates among the states, 6.7% each.

NONFARM JOBS RECORD REMAINS INTACT
Revised Arkansas data shows that the size of the workforce – 1.336 million – was up 1.39% compared to December 2014, and was up over the 1.335 million in November. The peak for Arkansas’ labor force was 1.376 million in August 2008.

The number of employed in Arkansas during December was 1.273 million, up 1,752 jobs over November. The December employed was up 28,680 jobs, or 2.3%, over the 1.244 million in December 2014. The number of unemployed was an estimated 63,504 during December, below the 64,178 in November, and below the 73,858 in December 2014.

The closely watched nonfarm payroll number was 1,223,900 in December, better than the 1,215,000 in November and up over the 1,204,600 in December 2014. Barring further revisions, the December levels marks a new high. The nonfarm number first fell below 1.2 million in October 2008, and did not return to the level until December 2014.

The nonfarm category does not include farm workers, private household employees, non-profit employees and “general government” employees. Investopedia estimates that the nonfarm category represents about 80% of the total workforce that contributes to national GDP.

Sectors with big year-over-year gains according to the revised numbers were education and health services (+7,000 jobs), professional and business services (+6,400), construction (+5,200), and leisure and hospitality (+2,900). The state’s manufacturing sector lost 4,500 jobs year-over-year.

ARKANSAS SECTOR NUMBERS (Revised)
In the Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector — Arkansas’ largest job sector — employment during December was an estimated 249,500, above the 247,700 in November and ahead of the 248,900 during December 2014. Employment in the sector hit a high of 251,800 in March 2007.

The revisions didn’t help Arkansas’ ailing manufacturing sector. Manufacturing jobs in Arkansas during December totaled 152,900, above the 151,400 in November but below the 157,400 in December 2014. Employment in the manufacturing sector is down more than 24% in the past 10 years. Peak employment in the sector was 247,300 in February 1995.

Professional and business service sector employment was 141,300 in December, better than the 141,100 in November and well ahead of the 134,800 in December 2014. The December level also marks a new employment record in the category. Sector employment is up more than 25% in the past 10 years.

Government job employment during December was 212,700, unchanged compared to November and down from the 213,200 during December 2014.

The state’s Education and Health Services sector during December had 180,500 jobs, up from 179,100 in November and up from 173,500 during December 2014. Employment in the sector is up 21% compared to December 2005. December also marked a new record for employment in the sector.

The construction sector employed an estimated 52,600 in December, above 52,100 in November and above the 47,400 in December 2014. Although sector employment has grown in recent year, the job number is below the employment high of 57,600 reached in March 2007.

Arkansas’ tourism sector (leisure & hospitality) employed 116,000 during December, up from 112,700 during November, and above the 113,100 during December 2014. The December number, if not revised, marks a new record for the sector.