NWA population rises above 500,000, Fort Smith metro census declines

New estimates from the U.S. Census show that Northwest Arkansas’ population grew 8.3% between April 2010 and July 2014, while the Fort Smith metro census estimate declined 0.31% in the same period.

The new estimate was released Thursday (March 26) by the U.S. Census Bureau and shows that the Northwest Arkansas metro area surpassed the half-million mark by July 1, 2014, to reach 501,653. Coincidentally, the Northwest Arkansas Council estimated in early May 2014 that on May 28, 2014, the region would cross the 500,000 mark.

“We certainly recognized that our estimate that we'd hit 500,000 residents on about May 28 was a conservative best guess when we made it so we're really glad to see that Northwest Arkansas probably hit that mark in late April based on what we now know,” Council spokesman Rob Smith said Thursday. “Regardless of when we hit it, what's most important is that we've now officially hit it and that's going to be noticed by companies looking to expand to new areas. We're in an even better position to build on the success we've already had.”

In a September 2014 “NWA Interstate 49 Corridor Report," CBRE brokers David Erstine and Clinton Bennett said a region with more than 500,000 people attracts more attention from developers.

“Crossing over the 500,000 population mark was a milestone, an important metric for certain retailers and restaurants. Another 25,000 to 35,000 people and Northwest Arkansas will move into the top 100 metro markets in the nation,” he said.

JOB LOSSES TIED TO POPULATION DECLINE
Fort Smith metro population was an estimated 279,592 as of July 1, 2014, down 0.31% from the 280,467 in April 2010. The metro area hit a high estimate of 281,012 in the July 1, 2011 estimate, but has declined each year since.

“I think there is a direct correlation between that (population decline) and the loss of manufacturing jobs,” Tim Allen, president and CEO of the Fort Smith Regional Chamber of Commerce, told The City Wire.

Allen also provided this statement: “It’s important to note that, while this population change is not positive, Fort Smith has made huge positive gains in jobs and capital investment over the past two years. These investments take time to come to fruition and we hope to see a rebound as those projects become a reality. The flat growth we are currently experiencing is a direct result of the loss of manufacturing jobs in our area. As the ArcBest expansion, Shared Services Center, the Osteopathic School of Medicine, and several other projects in our area flourish we believe Fort Smith’s population will bounce back accordingly.”

The Fort Smith regional manufacturing sector employed an estimated 18,100 in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is down from 19,800 in January 2010, and down 33.6% – or 9,200 jobs – from 10 years ago when January 2005 manufacturing jobs in the region were an estimated 27,300.

The number of employed in the Fort Smith region totaled 118,635 in December, down from 119,723 in November, and below the 119,964 employed in December 2013. The number of employed in the metro area is down 10.8% compared to the high of 133,061 in June 2006 – or 14,426 fewer jobs than the peak metro employment.

ARKANSAS METRO COMPARISONS
The Fort Smith and Pine Bluff metro areas were the only Arkansas regions to see population estimate declines between April 2010 and July 2014. Following are the numbers for the eight metro areas in or connected to Arkansas, with the areas listed in order of percentage growth.

Northwest Arkansas
April 2010: 463,204
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 501,653
+38,449
up 8.3%

Jonesboro
April 2010: 121,026
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 126,764
+5,738
up 4.74%

Central Arkansas
April 2010: 699,757
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 729,135
+29,378
up 4.19%

Memphis-West Memphis
April 2010: 1,324,829
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 1,343,230
+18,401
up 1.38%

Hot Springs metro
April 2010: 96,024
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 97,322
+1,298
up 1.35%

Texarkana metro
April 2010: 149,198
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 149,235
+37
up 0.02%

Fort Smith metro
April 2010: 280,467
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 279,592
-875
down 0.31%

Pine Bluff metro
April 2010: 100,258
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 94,716
-5,542
down 5.52%

Other notes from the new Census report include:
• The nation’s metro areas contained about 272.7 million people in 2014, an increase of about 2.4 million from 2013;

• Overall, 298 of the 381 metro areas in the United States gained population between 2013 and 2014;

• There were 53 metro areas with 2014 populations of 1 million or more. New York was the nation’s largest metro area in 2014, with about 20.1 million people; and

• The Tucson, Ariz., metro area surpassed the 1 million population threshold between 2013 and 2014.

• Two Texas metro areas — Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington — were the only ones in the country to add more than 100,000 residents over the 2013-2014 period. Within the Houston metro area, Harris County alone gained almost 89,000 people, more than any other county in the nation.

• The Lone Star State also had four metro areas among the nation’s 20 fastest growing by rate of change: Austin-Round Rock (third), Odessa (fourth), Midland (ninth) and Houston (11th).

• Los Angeles, Calif., is still the nation’s most populous county with a July 1, 2014, population surpassing 10.1 million.