Tolbert: Republican Leads Solidifying As Undecideds Break Toward GOP
by November 2, 2014 5:08 am 120 views
The latest round of polls out this week spells good news for the Republican ticket and is showing signs of what I have suspected would be the case – as Election Day approaches, undecided voters are breaking for the Republican candidates.
On Thursday, the UA’s Arkansas Poll showed a 13-point lead for Rep. Tom Cotton over Sen. Mark Pryor and an 11-point lead for Asa Hutchinson over Mike Ross. Democrats were dismissive of the poll, but another poll out on Saturday from the Democratic-leaning, but reliable pollster Public Policy Polling backs up the view that Republicans are pulling away at the top of the ticket. Tom Jensen with PPP writes…
In Arkansas, we find Republicans leading the races for Governor and the Senate by 8-10 points. Tom Cotton is up 49/41 on Mark Pryor, and Asa Hutchinson is up 51/41 on Mike Ross. At the end of the day Barack Obama’s unpopularity in the state may be too much for the Democratic candidates to overcome – only 29% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 62% who disapprove. The Republican candidates have proven to be relatively strong in their own right though. Hutchinson has a 49/35 favorability rating and Cotton’s is 48/40, better than we’re seeing for most candidates across the country this year.
In looking through the data at the widening lead for Republicans, I see two main trends.
First, the number of undecided voters is shrinking. This group seems to be made up primarily of independent voters. Most base Republican and Democratic voters made up their minds month ago. Among this independent group, Republicans continue to hold large leads. With this group in the Senate race, Cotton leads Pryor 56-27%; while in the Governor’s race, Asa leads Ross 58-25%. Assuming this group is the primary group settling on a candidate in the last couple of weeks, Republican candidates should be picking up 2 voters for every 1 voter for the Democrats.
The other factor is what I term the “Super Bowl effect” that seems to happen late in the election cycle. Even if your favorite team does not make it to the Super Bowl, most football fans will select one of the two teams to cheer for when they watch. While some are loyal to their conference, many fans jump on the bandwagon of the team that seems likely to win. This same “Super Bowl effect” happens in politics as many indifferent voters want to select the winner.
“We’ve seen a trend for months that Arkansans are ready for new leadership in the U.S. Senate and the Governor’s office. The Republican Party has been aggressive in our volunteer outreach and get out the vote effort, and it’s clear it’s working. From the polls, to fundraising, and early vote turnout in stronghold Republican counties up between 50 and 130 percent, we have the clear momentum,” said RNC spokesman Fred Brown, who sounded confident in a big win for Republicans when I spoke with him on Sunday.
One interesting note down in the results of the PPP poll shows a bright spot for Democrats where the Attorney General’s race is still close. The Republican, Leslie Rutledge, has a lead of only four points over Democrat Nate Steel. While it appears likely the Republican advantage will lift Rutledge on Election Day, her candidacy has been disappointing and many believe some Republicans following the race closely will vote for Steel, who appears the more qualified candidate. This week, well-respected Republican Marvin Childers, who at one time considered a run for Attorney General himself, hosted a fundraiser for Steel.
As I predicted on Talk Business & Politics with Roby Brock on Sunday, I see a sizable win for Republicans in the Senate and Governor races – perhaps as much as a 10-point margin when all the votes are counted. The two close races to watch are the Attorney General’s race and the Second District Congressional race between Republican French Hill and Democrat Patrick Henry Hays, but the momentum toward Republicans will help boost both GOP candidates in this race.