Northeast Arkansas Political Animals Offer Post-election Thoughts

The state appears headed toward a political sea change after history was made Nov. 4, leaders of the Northeast Arkansas Political Animals club said Wednesday.

Republican Andrea Allen and Democrat L.J. Bryant both said Republicans did a good job in recruiting political candidates this election cycle.

Republicans picked up all seven state constitutional offices, both houses in the state legislature, all four U.S. House seats and a United States senate race on Election Day.

Locally, Republicans won the county judge race in Greene County (Rusty McMillon); the county clerks’ races in Craighead, Greene, Poinsett and Randolph counties (Kade Holliday, Phyllis Rhynes, Teresa Rouse and Rhonda Blevins); as well as the majorities on the Craighead and Greene County Quorum Courts.

“The Republicans learned how to field people,” Bryant said.

“The Republicans did a good job,” Allen said, noting the get out the vote program was better for Republicans. “But I don’t think anyone could have predicted what happened on Election Night.”

However, several Democrats – including State Reps. Scott Baltz, D-Pocahontas, and Mary Broadaway, D-Paragould, and Craighead County Judge Ed Hill, D-Jonesboro – won new terms in the Republican wave.

Bryant, who lost after receiving 49% of the vote for a state House seat in 2012 against State Rep. John Hutchison, R-Harrisburg, said the percentage of votes for Democrats statewide and locally have gone down in recent years.

“In my race in 2010 (for Land Commissioner), I got 48 or 49 percent. In 2012, it was 51-49 (for the state House seat),” Bryant said. “This year, we got 42 to 44 percent with Radius (Baker, the candidate in District 52) getting 36 percent.”

Bryant said Democrats like Baltz, Broadaway, Hill and Craighead County Sheriff Marty Boyd, who all won re-election Nov. 4, were able to win due to name identification and working to provide constituent services.

“Marty might be the most popular politician in Northeast Arkansas,” Bryant said of Boyd, who won with over 70 percent of the vote.”

Allen said Republicans focused on fiscal issues and provided voters a key difference between themselves and Democrats. She also said she thought Governor-elect Hutchinson “will be good” on policy to advance the Republican cause.

Bryant said he believes there will be a battle within the GOP, with the libertarian wing and the social conservative wing going for the heart and soul of the party in the future.

Allen said the shift from Democrat to Republican may be “lasting, but the bigger race may be in the GOP primary” in the future. Both leaders agreed that momentum would be in the Republicans favor for the near future.

The state legislature starts Jan. 12 with one of the major issues involving the reauthorization of the so-called Private Option.

Both Bryant and Allen said fiscal bills may be difficult to pass in the next session due to a 75% vote threshold needed to approve bills.

Neither party has the 75% threshold for votes, but Republicans could peel away about a dozen Democrats to get a bill passed. Bryant said he believes Hutchinson “could ironically save the Private Option.”

2016 AND BEYOND
With one election done, the focus now shifts to the 2016 campaign.

In addition to a presidential race, a United States Senate race featuring incumbent Sen. John Boozman, R-Arkansas, and congressional races, voters will also decide 100 state House and 17 state Senate races.

Locally, three state senate incumbents – Sen. John Cooper, R-Jonesboro, Sen. David Burnett, D-Osceola, and Sen. Ron Caldwell, R-Wynne – are on the ballot in 2016.

Bryant said the voter-approved extension of a state term limits law – extending term limits to 16 years in either chamber – passed this year will likely stop any state House members from challenging Cooper, Burnett or Caldwell.

The presidential race could feature two people with Arkansas ties – former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Arkansas, and former First Lady, Democratic senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

On Wednesday, the Washington Post reported that Huckabee, who served as governor from 1996 to 2007, is considering the run and has been possibly looking at areas in Little Rock for a campaign headquarters.

Bryant said Clinton outperformed President Barack Obama in the 2008 Arkansas primary, while Allen said the former Arkansas First Lady did not enjoy widespread support in the state.

“Hillary Clinton was never really popular here. I think she was more popular when she left,” Allen said.

There has been some talk in recent weeks about a thin Democratic bench after the defeat of Pryor and the impending retirement of Beebe.

Bryant said his party does have a good bench, with people like outgoing Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, outgoing State Sen. Robert Thompson and state Sen. David Johnson, among others.

Bryant said it appears now his party will be a “Delta and Central Arkansas party.”

However, Allen, who serves as deputy chief of staff for Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Jonesboro, said her boss did well in several previous Democratic counties.

For instance, Crawford won 72% of the vote in Greene County; 71% of the vote in Sharp County; 69% of the vote in Clay, Craighead and Lawrence counties; 68% each in Independence and Poinsett counties; and 65% each in Cross and Randolph counties.

There was an even bigger difference in the Senate race. Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Dardanelle, who takes office in January, won 62-33% in Greene County; 57-38% in Lawrence and 58-37% in Poinsett County.

Another number was striking. There was a 37-point point spread in Craighead County between the 2014 race and Pryor’s last contested race in 2002 against then-Senator Tim Hutchinson.

Cotton won by 60-36% in Craighead County Nov. 4, while Pryor defeated Tim Hutchinson by a 56-44% margin in 2002.

On Friday, Nov. 21, Attorney General Dustin McDaniel will speak to the Northeast Arkansas Political Animals Club. The group meets at noon at the Jonesboro Chamber of Commerce.