Democrats hope Clinton rallies close gaps on top ticket races

Former President and former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton made his way through the Fort Smith and Texarkana areas Sunday (Nov. 2) on what is likely his last 2014 campaign through the state before Tuesday's (Nov. 4) general election.

But with recent poll numbers indicating growing leads for the Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tom Cotton and Republican gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson, what brings Clinton through western Arkansas on a final campaign swing?

Dr. Janine Parry, director of the Arkansas Poll and a political science professor at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, said there were two reasons – political heritage and mobilizing a Democratic base for a possible surprise upset. Parry's Arkansas Poll gave Hutchinson an 11 point lead over Democrat Mike Ross in the race for governor, while it showed Cotton with 13 point lead over Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor.

And it is the large spreads in the two races at the top of the ticket that Parry said could be giving the former president heartburn this close to the election.

"It matters to him," she said. "He's watching the political landscape change both swiftly and dramatically in a very short period of time. So it matters to him and he wants to try to preserve the party that supports the policies he thinks are best.”

By being a presence on the trail in recent months and especially in the closing weeks of the campaign, Parry said Clinton's Fort Smith visit and others around the state are meant to drive Democratic voters to the polls in a mid-term election that traditionally sees lower Democratic voter turnout.

"It still looks like a good ground game, Democrats are arguing. They (say they) can overcome these huge obstacles and win the race and potentially keep the Democratic majority in the Senate. The stakes are high and they don't want to risk (not pulling) out all the stops. That's where we're at.”

She said high profile surrogates, like Clinton, are what Democrats think will bring out their base of voters. What is tough to know, at this point, is how well the efforts are working. In the first week of early voting, both Democrats and Republicans were talking a big game with a 36% increase in early voting from 2010 to 2014, or the last mid-term to this year's mid-term.

Dr. Jay Barth, one of the pollsters behind the Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College polls that showed Cotton with an 8.5% lead on Pryor and Hutchinson with an 8% lead over Ross, said the early voting is always a big question, but especially this year with the significant increase in early voters.

"I think it's a key question. Obviously, I think Democrats think they are tapping into folks who would not have previously voted. Instead of focusing on someone (that traditionally votes and votes early), they'll focus on others on Tuesday. There's a lot of big question marks and it's somewhat of a high risk strategy (to depend on high Democratic turnout). Most would rather be high in the polls and not depend on turnout models," he said.

The only race where Clinton's campaigning in Fort Smith and Texarkana may have a net benefit is the 4th District race for Congress, where Barth's polling shows Republican Bruce Westerman leading Democrat James Lee Witt by only two points, within the margin of error.

In a statement Friday (Oct. 31), Witt — Clinton's director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency during his eight years as president — said having the former president and 4th District native campaigning in and near the district the weekend before the general election was important to his race.

"I consider him a close friend and confidant," Witt said. "The President understands the importance of our race.  He knows how critical it is for everyone to exercise their right to vote, and his ability to have an impact on voters in undeniable. Right now, so many of these races are about blaming others for our problems instead of working together to get things done. Under the leadership of President Clinton, we balanced the budget and actually left office with a surplus. We didn’t balance the budget with a single party majority. We did it by working across party lines with Democrats and Republicans. I believe President Clinton reminds voters what it is like for politicians to actually work together for the good of the people.“

But during a campaign stop Friday in Mulberry, Westerman said Clinton was drawing a contrast between himself and Witt and it was something he hoped would happen again on Sunday.

"He may turn out a few more Democratic voters, but I was really appreciative of President Clinton the last time he came because he went to Hot Springs and talked to voters about how I opposed Obamacare. So I hope he'll talk about some of the same issues when he's here this time," he said.

Westerman also pointed to internal polling that conflicted with the Talk Business/Hendrix College poll showing his race neck and neck with Witt.

But Barth said it appears Clinton's jaunt through western Arkansas Sunday, with a final stop at Fort Smith's Northside High School Sunday night, was meant to draw attention to the 4th District, where Democrats are hoping to force an upset victory in a state that Parry acknowledged has quickly turned into a sea of red.

"He clearly does get media attention. They'll be big stories in all of those markets that he's visiting," Barth said. "But I think everybody sees that race as pretty close. Even the Westerman folks at this point have to recognize it is closer than they thought it was. It has been reaffirmed by some polling that I've seen. So I agree that geographically the visits this weekend seem to be targeted there, as well as enhanced turnout, especially in the African American communities that could have a benefit for statewide candidates, as well."