Tolbert: GOP Edges Democrats In Arkansas New Voter Registration

As the 2014 election approaches, there has been a lot of discussion of the “ground game.”

Democrats have particularly fought back against polls numbers and an election trend showing the state swinging from a blue to a red state. These Democrats point to their 40 field offices around the state that they say could help them stem the tide.

“We are starting from a blank slate. People here have never seen what folks in Ohio and Pennsylvania are used to every year,” said Robert McLarty, the director of the Arkansas Democratic Coordinated Campaign, in an article in The Atlantic.

But at least one indicator shows that Democrats could be failing to gain ground in a strategic area – voter registration.

According to the latest numbers from the Secretary of State, Republicans have slightly outpaced Democrats in state party preference of new voters.  3,777 new voters have indicated “Republican” as their party preference while 3,701 have indicated “Democrat.”  Although the lead is small, it shows some weakness to the argument that the Obama-type of field organization is duplicating its efforts in Ohio and Pennsylvania where they turned out record numbers of new voters by mobilization and voter registration drives.

It should be noted that the vast majority of voter registration still indicate “optional” for the party on their forms – 90,033 listed this preference this year.  It is difficult to determine how these new voters will lean.  However, if this group is primarily “independent” voters, polls show Republicans winning this group by a double-digit margin. (For example, the latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll showed Cotton winning independent voters 50% to 33% for Pryor.)

A third party preference was indicated for 33 new voters with 25 Libertarians and 7 new Green Party members.