The Battle For Arkansas Governor

Editor’s note: This article appears in the latest magazine edition of Talk Business & Politics, which you can read here.

Asa Hutchinson is fond of saying that he hasn’t changed, but the state has. And he’s right, at least on his analysis of Arkansas’ political landscape.

Since 2010, Arkansas has shifted to a lean Republican electorate thanks to an unpopular Democratic president, Barack Obama, and a nearly as unpopular health care law that continues to stoke political backlash across the state.

The battle to fill the shoes of Gov. Mike Beebe – who mystifyingly hovers near 70% with his approval rating – will be one for the ages in Arkansas politics. Many observers see the 2014 election cycle shaping up like the 1990 classic that featured Bill Clinton, Sheffield Nelson, Tommy Robinson, Steve Clark, Jim Guy Tucker and Tom McRae.

That year’s races had strong personalities and the Clinton re-election certainly fed the narrative that defined a generation of politics throughout the 1990’s at the state and national level.

This year’s cycle has some qualities of that epic year considering the governor’s race has seen the entry and exit of Attorney General Dustin McDaniel and former Lt. Governor Bill Halter, and the quick re-emergence of former Cong. Mike Ross, the Democratic nominee. Several Republicans, including House Speaker Davy Carter, flirted with potential runs after Hutchinson staked an early claim as the GOP frontrunner.

The U.S. Senate race pitting Sen. Mark Pryor versus Cong. Tom Cotton has added another layer of personality and intrigue to this year’s political season, but unlike 1990, all of 2014’s political action is not crowded into one race.

After the jockeying, the trial balloons, and this year’s political primaries, the Arkansas governor’s campaign has come down to two capable politicians with solid backgrounds of public service.

MEET THE CANDIDATES
To be fair, there are actually four candidates in this year’s field.

Libertarian Frank Gilbert of Tull (Grant County) and Green Party nominee Joshua Drake of Hot Springs will be on the ballot, but their long-shot candidacies won’t likely mount to much more than single-digit gains.

Political polling shows that they are alternatives to the major party candidates – they each poll in the two to three percent range – but their most likely effect on the race is that they may keep the eventual winner from receiving a majority of votes.

In all of the political polls that have been released in the last year, neither Republican Asa Hutchinson nor Democrat Mike Ross have broken the 50 percent threshold. Could this year’s gubernatorial winner only receive a plurality of votes? It’s possible.

Ross, the former Fourth District Congressman from Prescott, survived the GOP tidal wave year of 2010 winning re-election by a solid 17-point spread. That was the year Republicans made gains everywhere.

They won the Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, and Land Commissioner offices with underfunded, unknown candidates over establishment Democrats. They took open seats in the First and Second Congressional Districts and knocked off incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in a landslide. While they didn’t take control of the state Legislature in 2010, they made huge gains that positioned them for majority control in 2012.

But they didn’t come close against Ross or the man he hopes to succeed, Gov. Mike Beebe.

Michael Avery Ross was born in 1961 in Texarkana. The son of public school educators, Ross graduated from Hope High School and earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.

He and his wife, Holly, have two grown children. The Ross’ owned a pharmacy in Prescott, Arkansas where they raised their family.

Ross cut his teeth early in politics as a driver for a guy named Bill Clinton, who was making his big comeback as governor after a stinging defeat to Frank White in the early 1980’s.

Ross’ public service included a stint on the Nevada County Quorum Court, serving as chief-of-staff for then-Lt. Governor Winston Bryant, and ten years in the Arkansas State Senate.

In 2000, Ross pulled off an upset and knocked off incumbent GOP Congressman Jay Dickey in a race that was decided by 4,000 votes in a 51-49% nailbiter.

He survived a rematch in 2002 against Dickey and went on to serve six terms in Congress before announcing his retirement at the end of 2012.

His successor is this year’s GOP Senate nominee, Tom Cotton. That unfolding of events led Ross to receive an unexpected primary challenge from Lynette Bryant, a substitute teacher who partially blamed Ross for Cotton’s opportunity.

Despite the surprise, Ross easily dispatched Bryant (85-15%) in the only major race on the statewide ballot for Democrats.

Ross was lured out of political retirement – he had joined regional electricity transmission operator Southwest Power Pool – when Attorney General Dustin McDaniel dropped out of the race after admitting to an affair with a Hot Springs attorney. Ross was only out of the public eye for about four months between ending his Congressional term and formally announcing his intent to run for Governor.

He quickly amassed a $2 million war chest and set the tone that he would be an “independent voice” for Arkansas and run as a centrist Democrat, true to his years in Congress as a leader in the Blue Dog coalition.

Ross has a solid A rating from the NRA and often broke ranks with national Democratic leadership. He’s the kind of rural Arkansas conservative that Democrats need to have a shot at holding statewide seats. Those who know Ross will attest to his tenacity, stamina and campaign discipline.

His years in Congress allowed Ross to become well-known in the Fourth District he represented, but in 2014 he’s still introducing himself to three-fourths of the rest of the state.

Asa Hutchinson says he hasn’t changed, but he has.

The former Third District Congressman hasn’t altered any of his major positions on big picture issues. He’s an unwavering pro-gun, anti-abortion, tax-cutting conservative.

But he has found a way to soften his image. After three statewide runs and notoriety as an impeachment manager of then-President Bill Clinton, Hutchinson has found a voice to appeal to a much wider swath of voters. One of his recent ads featuring his granddaughter, Ella Beth, may best capture who Asa has become: a politician you can call by his first name, a “Pawpaw”, and a candidate with an easy-to-understand policy goal of expanding computer science to school children.

Hutchinson is also benefitting in this election cycle by not being the challenger. In his previous races, he’s always seemed to be the outsider challenging the establishment candidate, even if it was for an open seat. His previous opponents – Dale Bumpers, Winston Bryant, Mike Beebe – they all had some semblance of a political machine and name ID that Asa would have to overcome.

This year feels different.

William Asa Hutchinson was born in Bentonville, Arkansas in 1950 and graduated high school in Springdale. He finished his undergraduate degree at Bob Jones University in Greenville, South Carolina and then received a law degree from the University of Arkansas. He and his wife, Susan, have four children and five grandchildren.

After a stint practicing law in Fort Smith, he was appointed at age 31 as U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas. After two failed attempts at statewide office, he was elected as Third District Congressman to follow in his brother Tim’s footsteps after Tim was elected to the U.S. Senate. In between losing contests and being elected to Congress, Hutchinson served for nearly five years as the co-chair of the Republican Party of Arkansas.

Hutchinson resigned from Congress to serve in the administration of President George W. Bush. He was named head of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and, after the 9-11 attacks, he became the first Undersecretary for Border & Transportation Security at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Eventually, he retreated back to a private law and lobbying practice during and after his 2006 gubernatorial challenge to Mike Beebe.

Last year with rumors circulating, Asa Hutchinson told reporters he planned to announce to run for Governor in 2014. Other names floated, but in the end only Hutchinson and Tea Party conservative Curtis Coleman filed for the GOP nomination.

Hutchinson had an easy time in the Republican primary with Coleman, winning by a 73-27% margin. The layup opponent allowed Hutchinson to spend about a half million dollars this spring on positive commercials boosting his name ID and projecting an air of confidence headed into the general election.

FORCES AT WORK
In any election year, a race for Governor would typically dominate news coverage and political appetites.

This year, however, the U.S. Senate race and its national importance has nearly drowned out coverage of all the other contests on the ballot including Governor.

Both Hutchinson and Ross have sought to define their candidacies – Hutchinson wants to be the “jobs governor” to Ross’ “education governor” – but neither of those monikers has become a household staple.

In 2006, Mike Beebe defined the race early with his “born in a tar paper shack” biography and his clearly defined goal of wanting to eliminate the sales tax on groceries. Neither Ross nor Hutchinson have had such clearly defined messages despite opposing positions on tax cuts, the Private Option, education, and public safety.

Poll numbers in the Governor’s race have bounced around somewhat, but by and large, Hutchinson has consistently led.

Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College polling has shown Asa Hutchinson leading in October 2013 in a hypothetical match-up, Mike Ross leading by one point in April 2014, and Hutchinson with a five-point lead (46-41%) in late July 2014.

The crosstabs of that last poll tell you what’s at work in the GOP’s favor.

Hutchinson is winning with independent voters 50-33%, a trend that has been a blueprint for success for Republicans in the last two cycles. He has also performed better with men and held his own with female voters, a key demographic with which Ross hopes to improve. Hutchinson – and other Republican candidates – are faring better with African American voters at this juncture of the campaign than historical numbers would reflect.

Some observers have speculated that the long-time grip of Democrats with minority voters may be loosening a bit as Republicans have made political gains and as Democrats have consistently run from the policies of President Obama, the first African American president.

Ross has to turn some of that crosstab data around to win the election.

Republicans feel like they still have weapons to work with in undermining any advances Ross may make in the final weeks. While he voted against the final version of Obamacare in Congress (and he voted to repeal it), he did cast a vote for a version that was once being considered for the federal health care overhaul.

It requires complicated and precise descriptions to lay out either sides’ arguments. In a political environment couched in 30-second TV ads, simple and blunt messages are likely to prevail.

There’s plenty to work with regarding Hutchinson, Democrats contend. From his votes in Congress to his work at Homeland Security to some of his private consulting and legal work, Democrats have an arsenal of stories to introduce to voters on Hutchinson.

The Clinton factor hasn’t really come into play yet. With Hutchinson serving as a prosecutor in the impeachment of Clinton in the 1990’s, voters have yet to be reminded of his role in what many now view as an embarrassing moment in U.S. history. Democrats will no doubt rely on the popular ex-President to motivate voters who still feel a deep connection to Arkansas’ native son.

Democrats are also relying on a behind-the-scenes effort to register, identify and motivate “non-likely voters” to become “likely voters.” This Herculean effort is similar to the micro-targeting push the GOP made in the 2006 mid-terms. At the time, Republicans said identifying issue voters would make the difference and surge the GOP to victory despite the unpopularity of President George W. Bush.

It didn’t work in 2006 and Democrats would reshape Arkansas political strategy if they’re successful with their current effort.

The fall debates offer additional opportunities for either candidate to seal the deal or blow it completely. If early forums are any indication, the two men can be expected to fiercely attack and defend. Who comes across as the “most gubernatorial” will clearly be the choice for voters to make.

With less than two months to go, the political fate of the state is in play. On November 5th, the world will know.