ASU Political Science Professor Says Arkansas Could Have ‘Purple Political Atmosphere’

The eyes of a nation may be on Arkansas this year, with several hotly contested federal and state races on the ballot, a pair of Arkansas State University professors said Wednesday.

Dr. Richard Wang and Dr. Will McLean both spoke to the Jonesboro Kiwanis Club about the 2014 election season.

The major races this year are the U.S. Senate race between Republican Tom Cotton and incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor, as well as the governor’s race between Republican Asa Hutchinson and Democrat Mike Ross, both Wang and McLean said.

Wang said he believes the race between Hutchinson and Ross, who are joined by Libertarian Frank Gilbert and Green party candidate Josh Drake, will be very competitive.

“Everybody is watching it and it will be real close,” Wang said of the governor’s race. McLean echoed Wang’s statement, saying the governor’s race was really difficult to call at this point.

As for the Senate race, Wang said Pryor, who is seeking a third term, is somewhat vulnerable due to Republicans being able to nationalize the race.

A poll Wednesday from Rasmussen showed Pryor with a 44-43% lead, while a Real Clear Politics average Wednesday of polls during August showed Cotton with a 1.7% lead.

Wang said many incumbents win re-election due to money and having good name recognition.

The state, a longtime Democratic bastion, has turned red in the past several election cycles and has followed the example of its surrounding states, McLean said. However, McLean added there might be a return to a more purple political atmosphere.

“The realignment has been sharp, but I don’t know if it is permanent,” McLean said.

Both men said the down-ballot races, like Attorney General and Secretary of State, could provide a look into the future when reapportionment happens in 2020.

“The attorney general’s race (between Republican Leslie Rutledge, Democrat State Rep. Nate Steel and Libertarian Aaron Cash) is competitive,” Wang said.

“If Republicans maintain the legislature, win the governor, attorney general and secretary of state, they could control apportionment,” McLean said. “There are some who are upset about that and there have been challenges in court about it. But the courts have said, ‘Go out and win elections.’”

As for the state legislature, Wang said there was an opportunity that Democrats could wrest away control from Republicans this fall.

Republicans hold a 51-48-1 margin in the state House and a 21-13, with one vacancy, majority in the state Senate.

One of the races that may draw some interest is in District 52, with Republican Dwight Tosh and Democrat Radius Baker facing one another, Wang said.

“Everyone in the state is watching this one,” Wang said.

McLean said the overall change in politics in the state may be historic and difficult for Democrats.

“For the first time in a long time, they are underdogs. They have their work cut out for them,” McLean said.