Study highlights pattern shifts among shoppers

Shoppers are normally creatures of habit but this past spring behaviors shifted, according to a survey by RetailNext Inc.

Using so-called "big data," the survey studied 41 million shopping trips across 500 U.S. cities between March 3 and June 15, or 103 shopping days. The study highlights store traffic, sales and average ticket data through the period which includes much of Wal-Mart’s second quarter.

Despite a longer winter than most retailers would have liked, consumer confidence during this period was nearing a five-year high which created usual patterns particularly around the holidays.

TEPID TRAFFIC
The survey found store traffic flat through the first two weeks of March but rising sharply just ahead of the Easter holiday on March 31. Traffic rose an average 14.3% in the week prior to Easter but quickly fell some 5% below normal throughout the entire month of April.

Retailers from Wal-Mart to Home Depot said inclement weather kept shoppers at bay during much of April, which had a negative impact of comparable store sales in the past quarter.

MISSION ORIENTED
Consumers did shop for mom’s just ahead of Mother’s Day on May 12. Three days prior to that, shoppers turned out in big numbers with sales rising, 19%, 10% and 13%, respectively. Analysts said shopping this close to the holiday suggests mission-oriented trips and last-minute purchases looking for best pricing scenarios.

May is the first month of Wal-Mart’s second fiscal quarter and while the retailer does not give monthly sales numbers, corporate executives expect tepid comparable store sales between 0% to 2%.

Retailers showed flat traffic and sales throughout the month of May, spiking sharply on Memorial Day, May 27. The survey found traffic rose 73% on Memorial Day pushing sales up 59% with a 5% bump in average tickets, over the baseline data. Again the heavy shopping on Memorial Day came at the expense of the following weekend as traffic declined 16% to start the month of June.

Bill Simon, CEO of Walmart U.S. said last month consumers are accustomed to cutting back but they are still spending at key times.

“They have figured out to survive in this slow moving economy and they cut back where they can, but we don’t see them pulling back on items their families need or on special occasions,” Simon said.

FAVORING FATHERS
Shoppers turned out in droves the entire week ahead of Father’s Day, June 15. The study showed heavier traffic and sales increased an average 20% for the five days leading up to June 15. Sales peaked on Friday June 13 rising 32% over the baseline.

This was the longest sustained shopper trend among the four holiday’s in the study period. Analysts said retailers should note the trend in future years and create plans to capitalize fully on these motivated shoppers. In any event, retailers were glad to see heightened activity in June, after a tepid May and sluggish April.

“The increased activity leading up to both Mother's Day and Father's Day represents a genuine boost to retailers; although, we've seen those seeking gifts for women tend to shop later than those seeking gifts for men," said Chitra Balasubramanian, vice president of Insights for RetailNext. 

"If you attribute much of this uplift to people shopping for their spouses, one possible explanation is that men have a greater tendency than women to delay gift shopping until right before the holiday."

RETAIL RALLY
Over the same 103 days examined in the RetailNext survey, investors in Wal-Mart, Target and Amazon also did well. Target shares rose 8.19% in the period to $69.03.

Shares of Wal-Mart Stores increased 4.3% in value to $74.87. Amazon shareholders saw a 3.08% gain in their invest with a stock price of $273.99.

That said, analysts remain somewhat cautious for the retail segment through this summer citing compressed margins and near-zero inflation which is shaving back top line growth.

Consumer confidence continues to improve enough to bolster high-ticket item purchases like automobiles and homes, but overall shoppers remain rather frugal with other discretionary spending.