Retailers remain cautious on merchandise imports

Import volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to increase 1.1% in June over the same month last year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation.

The report reflects modest growth expectations as retailers head toward the back-to-school and holiday seasons.

“With the economic recovery moving slowly, retailers are being cautious this summer and could hold off on stocking up for the holiday season until fall,” said Jonathon Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy for NRF. “We aren’t expecting significant increases for imports until October, when retailers will have a better idea of what to expect for holiday demand.”

Cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them. But the amount of merchandise imported nonetheless provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.31 million container units in April, the latest month for which numbers are available. Units were up 14.6%  from an unusually slow March but down 0.1% from April 2012.

May cargo was estimated at 1.4 million containers, up 2.2% from a year ago.

June is forecast at 1.4 million containers, up 1.1% from last year;
July at 1.44 million containers, up 1.9%;
August at 1.43 million containers,  up 0.5%;
September at 1.42 million containers, up 0.8%;
October at 1.45 million containers, up 7.9%.

The first six months of 2013 are expected to total 7.8 million containers, up 1.9% from the first half of 2012.

“We are witnessing a period of import trade growth that is running more or less in sync with the U.S. economic expansion. Unfortunately, both are anemic,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The impact of this extremely cautious consumer spending is that we expect import consumption to remain weak for the coming four to six months.”

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.