Arkansas’ jobless rate rises in May

An almost 2% decline in Arkansas’ workforce and the number of employed pushed the state’s jobless rate higher to 7.3% in May, with one market watcher noting an unusual and troubling trend in Arkansas’ construction sector.

Arkansas’ jobless rate was 7.3% in May, up from the revised 7.2% in April and unchanged from May 2012, according to a Friday (June 21) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Arkansas was one of 17 states to post jobless rate increases during May. May marks 52 consecutive months that Arkansas’ jobless rate has been at or above 7%.

The number of employed in Arkansas during May was down an estimated 23,126, or 1.86%, compared to May 2012. The number of unemployed fell from 99,048 in May 2012 to an estimated 96,965 in May 2013. Also, the number of unemployed increased by an estimated 1,761 between April and May.

The workforce size shrank from an estimated 1.358 million in May 2012 to 1.333 million in May – a 1.85% decline.

Arkansas’ annual average jobless rate fell from 7.9% during 2011 to 7.3% during 2012.

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR LOSSES
Greg Kaza, executive director of the Arkansas Policy Foundation, said the construction sector “is a missing piece of the Arkansas employment puzzle as the U.S. economy enters its fifth year of expansion.”

According to Kaza’s analysis of state and federal labor reports, Friday’s nonfarm payroll employment report shows that Arkansas’ construction sector has shed 3,300 jobs since the recession ended in June 2009, contracting from 50,700 to 47,400 in May.

“These Arkansas construction job losses are the largest contraction in 12 postwar national expansions dating to October 1945,” Kaza said in a memo to The City Wire. “Construction jobs contracted in only one other expansion (July 1980 to July 1981), falling from 39,800 to 36,500, according to state labor market data.”

The construction sector employed an estimated 47,400 during May, up slightly from the 46,700 during April and below the 48,300 during May 2012. Employment in the sector is down 6.3% from May 2003.

Kaza’s memo also included the following analysis.
• The average postwar gain in Arkansas construction at the 48-month stage was 5,660.

• According to today’s (June 21) BLS data, Arkansas construction has lost 3,300 jobs in the expansion, and is a missing piece of the employment puzzle because monetary and fiscal stimulus is not working as forecast.

• If stimulus was working well at the state level, these two numbers would have generated a net gain of 8,960 Construction jobs, resulting in an Arkansas unemployment rate less than 7%, not today’s reported 7.3% rate.

ARKANSAS SECTOR NUMBERS
In the Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector — Arkansas’ largest job sector — employment during May was an estimated 253,100, up from the April number and ahead of the 241,400 during May 2012.

Manufacturing jobs in Arkansas during May totaled 154,300, down from the 155,300 in April and below the 156,400 in May 2012. Employment in the manufacturing sector fell in 2012 to levels not seen since early 1968. Peak employment in the sector was 247,300 in May 1995.

Government job employment during May was 214,700, down from 216,100 in April and below the 216,400 during May 2012.

The state’s Education and Health Services sector during May had 174,500 jobs, down from the 175,400 during April and up from 172,200 during May 2012. Employment in the sector is up almost 25% compared to May 2003.

Arkansas’ tourism sector (leisure & hospitality) employed 101,200 during May, down from the 102,300 during April and less than the 102,600 during May 2012. At a revised 103,700, January 2013 marked a new employment high in the sector.

NATIONAL DATA
The BLS report also noted that 41 states had unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier, four states had increases, and five states had no change. The national jobless rate was essentially unchanged from April at 7.6% but was 0.6 percentage point lower than in May 2012.

Nevada had the highest unemployment rate among the states in May at 9.5%. The next highest rates were in Illinois and Mississippi, 9.1% each. North Dakota again had
the lowest jobless rate, 3.2%.

The May jobless rate in Oklahoma was 5%, up from 4.9% in April but below the 5.1% in May 2012.

Missouri’s jobless rate during May was 6.8%, up from 6.7% in April but below the 7% in May 2012.