GOP likely to sweep Arkansas’ Congressional races

The latest round of Talk Business-Hendrix College polling suggests Republicans are positioned to make history by winning all four Congressional seats in Arkansas for the first time in modern politics.

“The GOP candidates have strong double-digit leads in all four Congressional races and, at this juncture, it would be a comeback for the ages if the Democrats or other candidates were to secure any victories,” said Roby Brock, executive editor of Talk Business & Politics.

In the First Congressional District, among 563 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-4.1%:
In the race for U.S. Congress, the candidates are Democrat Scott Ellington, Republican Rick Crawford, Green Party Candidate Jacob Holloway, and Libertarian Jessica Paxton.  For whom do you plan to vote for this November?
28%  Scott Ellington
53%  Rick Crawford
1%  Jacob Holloway
2%   Jessica Paxton
16%     Undecided

In the Second Congressional District, among 563 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-4.2%:
In the race for U.S. Congress, the candidates are Republican Tim Griffin, Democrat Herb Rule, Libertarian Chris Hayes, and Green Party Candidate Barbara Ward.  For whom do you plan to vote for this November?
49%        Tim Griffin
28.5%     Herb Rule
3%          Chris Hayes
4%          Barbara Ward
15.5%     Undecided

In the Third Congressional District, among 635 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-3.9%:
In the race for U.S. Congress, the candidates are Green Party candidate Rebekah Kennedy, Republican Steve Womack, and Libertarian David Pangrac.  For whom do you plan to vote for this November?
15.5%     Rebekah Kennedy
58%        Steve Womack
6%          David Pangrac
20.5%     Undecided

In the Fourth Congressional District, among 509 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-4.3%:

In the race for U.S. Congress, the candidates are Libertarian Bobby Tullis, Democrat Gene Jeffress, Green Party Candidate Joshua Drake, and Republican Tom Cotton.  For whom do you plan to vote for this November?
3%       Bobby Tullis
22%     Gene Jeffress
4%       Joshua Drake
51%     Tom Cotton
20%     Undecided

Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the poll.

“As expected, Arkansas is on its way to a U.S. House delegation controlled entirely by Republicans. The sole Republican candidate for Congress not pulling a majority of the vote is Second District Congressman Tim Griffin; even he, however, has a healthy plurality of the vote over his principal opponent, Democrat Herb Rule (49-28.5%). Independents are swaying heavily to the Republicans across the districts where there are candidates from both parties,” Barth said.

Talk Business and Hendrix College will release additional polling results on Tuesday and Wednesday at www.talkbusiness.net.

POLL METHODOLOGY
These four polls were conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College on Monday, Sept. 17, 2012. The polls were completed using IVR survey technology among likely general election voters in Arkansas’ four Congressional Districts.

Participants were selected from a database of district voters who have voted in 2 to 4 of the last 4 general elections and who affirmatively answered a question that they intended to vote in the general election on Nov. 6, 2012.